Oil eases on Fed stimulus outlook, inventories data in focus

Oil prices fell for a second day after snapping a 6-day winning streak on Monday amid speculations what information tomorrows minutes from FOMCs July meeting will reveal. Losses remained in check on expectations the Energy Information Administration will report on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil reserves have dropped to the lowest since September. Persisting unrest in Egypt continued to underpin the market.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude for delivery in October traded at $105.95 per barrel at 7:11 GMT, down 0.88% on the day. Prices held in range between days high and low of $106.91 and $105.78 per barrel respectively. Light, sweet crude snapped a six-day advancing cycle on Monday and fell by 0.79%, extending current weeks decline to over 1.6% so far.

Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent crude for October delivery stood at $109.08 per barrel at 7:11 GMT, marking a 0.75% decline. Futures ranged between days high at $109.80 and low of $108.99. The European benchmark plunged 0.9% on Monday snapped a 4-day losing streak, extending current weeks decline to 1.4%.

Market players remained cautious ahead of the upcoming minutes of FOMCs July meeting which should bring some clarity on Feds intentions regarding its monetary easing program. Dollar-denominated commodities have largely been tracking shifting expectations for an earlier-than-expected deceleration of the central banks bond purchases, which have been pushing up commodities prices. An exit from Quantitative Easing would deliver a heavy blow to the raw materials market as it will strengthen the dollar, thus making commodities more expensive for foreign currency holders and limiting their appeal as an alternative investment.

Meanwhile, supportive for prices, market analysts project a drop in this weeks crude oil inventories. According to a weekly Bloomberg survey, U.S. crude reserves fell by 1.25 million barrels to 359.2 million in the week ending August 16, the lowest since September 2012. Gasoline stockpiles are projected to have fallen by 1.25 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories probably gained 750 000 barrels. Refinery utilization is expected to have decreased by 0.55% from last weeks 89.4%, the first rate below 90% since June 14.

The industry-funded American Petroleum Institute will publish its separate oil inventories report later today but it is considered as less reliable than the government statistics since it is based on voluntary information from operators of bulk terminals, pipelines and refineries.

Michael McCarthy, a chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, said for Bloomberg: “There are a number of reasons for the market to be a little cautious. We have the inventory numbers and the publication of the July minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee on Aug. 22, which is going to speak directly to the U.S. economy.”

Meanwhile, Libya suspended contractual obligations on some oil exports on Monday, declaring force mejeure, after protesting security guards went on strike and closed off the countrys main export terminals. Libyas crude output more than halved in July, totaling 800 000 barrels per day.

Michael Wittner from Societe Generale Group wrote in a research note on Tuesday: “The price impact has been so muted because markets, while well aware of the Libyan crude outages, are also well aware that we are heading into a period of seasonally decreasing refinery crude runs.”

In Egypt, state media reported on Tuesday that military forces have arrested the Muslim Brotherhoods top leader. Around 900 people and 100 security personnel have been killed since last week amid ongoing clashes between protesting supporters of army-deposed Islamist President Mohamed Mursi and the Egyptian security forces, which ousted the democratically elected Mursi.

Although Egypt is not an oil producer, investors are worried that the conflict might spread into neighboring oil producing countries. At the same time, speculations that the clashes could disrupt oil flows and shipments through the Suez Canal and Suez-Mediterranean pipeline have also been building a premium.

Market players will also be looking ahead at the upcoming U.S. data to gauge the strength of the U.S. economy. On Wednesday, Existing Home Sales in July are expected to have risen to 5.13 million, up from June’s 5.08 million. On Thursday, last week’s Initial Jobless Claims likely rose by 10 000 to 330 000, while the Markit Flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI for August is projected to have advanced to 54.0 from July’s 53.7. On Friday, July’s New Home Sales are expected to have declined to 0.490 million houses sold, down from 0.497 million in the preceding month.