Grain futures mixed, soybeans gain on frost concern

Grain futures were mixed on Friday with corn declining, while wheat gained and soybeans advanced on concern over frost damage and increased U.S. exports.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybeans for September delivery traded at $12.3638 a bushel at 9:40 GMT, up 0.71% on the day. Prices ranged between days high and low of $12.3675 and $12.2713 a bushel respectively. The oilseed surged 2.42% on Thursday, erasing earlier losses and extending current weeks advance to over 2.0% so far.

Soybeans rose for the last two days on concern that because development of the crop was slowed down due to rains in May and cooler temperatures in July, frost could damage the crop going forward in the next months. The oilseed also drew support as government data showed U.S. exports rose to 1.1 million tons last week, exceeding 1 million tons for a second week. Chinas inbound shipments rose above 7 million tons in July to a record high for a second straight month.

Dewey Strickler, the president of Ag Watch Market Advisers in Franklin, Kentucky, said for Bloomberg yesterday: “The weather has been cooler than normal here in the past two weeks, so people are saying ‘what if we get an early frost. If we have an early frost, yields could be clipped.”

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of eight agricultural commodities declined 19% so far this year with soybeans marking a 16% drop, while corn erased 34%. Both of the crops, the two biggest in the U.S., marked major losses in the last couple of weeks as favorable weather conditions in the main growing areas benefited developing and the USDA forecast record-high output this year. The government agency’s previous projection was for a jump in domestic soybeans output by 13% to a record 3.42 billion bushels, which would boost global inventories by 20% to an all-time record high of 74.1 million tons.

According to a Reuters poll ahead of USDAs crop production report on August 12, soybeans output is likely to have fallen to a record-high 3.338 billion bushels this year, which is however below USDAs July forecast at 3.42 billion bushels.

Meanwhile according to Reuters, corn production is seen at a record 13.980 billion bushels, above USDAs July projection at 13.950 billion. According to a Bloomberg survey, farmers may reap a record 14.036 billion bushels of corn this year, 30% more than last year’s drought-hurt production.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for September delivery fell to $4.7175 a bushel at 9:40 GMT, down 0.52% on the day. Prices ranged between days high and low of $4.7663 and $4.7075 per bushel respectively. The grain surged 1.07% on Thursday, trimming its weekly decline to 0.9% so far after shedding 12.6% in the last two weeks.

The USDA said in its crop report on Monday that as of the week ending August 4, 86% of the corn plants were in the silking stage, compared to 71% a week earlier. This was near the five-year average of 89%, but below last year’s reading of 98%.

Wheat gains

Meanwhile wheat gained on the day, rising to $6.4275 a bushel at 9:40 GMT, up 0.18%. Prices held in range between days high and low of $6.4413 and 6.4063 a bushel respectively. The grain fell to a 14-month low of $6.3913 a bushel on Wednesday, the lowest since June 19, 2012. Futures settled 0.43% lower on Thursday, extending current weeks decline to 2.6%.

Wheat was supported recently as lower prices induced stockpiles refilling in some countries. However, wheat prices plunged on Wednesday as Iraq and Egypt avoided purchases of U.S. wheat, indicating ample global supply. Instead, Iraq bought 150 000 tons of Canadian and Australian wheat, while Egypt, the world’s biggest importer, purchased 60 000 tons from both Romania and Ukraine.

The USDA reported on Monday that spring wheat heading advanced to 97% last week, 3% above the preceding week’s pace and 1% below the five-year average of 98%. During the comparable period in 2012, 100% of the crop was headed.

As for the wheat condition, its moderately better than last season’s crop. As of August 4, 7% of the spring wheat was categorized as “Very poor” and “Poor”, compared to 11% a year earlier. Plants in the “Fair” category were 1% less than in 2012, standing at 25%. As for the top quality, 68% was rated good-excellent, above last year’s 63% during the comparable week.