The EUR/NOK currency pair settled near a fresh 9-month low of 11.2873 and recorded a third straight week of losses in the wake of the Norges Bank’s policy decision and the latest European macro data.
Norway’s Krone appreciated, while exerting downward pressure on the EUR/NOK pair, after the Norges Bank left borrowing costs without change, having previously indicated the potential start of rate cuts.
Norges Bank kept its key policy rate on hold at 4.5% for the tenth straight meeting in March, in line with market consensus.
Policy makers noted that inflation had accelerated sharply and had remained notably higher than expectations.
“If the policy rate is lowered prematurely, prices may continue to rise rapidly,” Norges Bank said.
Still, the central bank noted that it expected to lower interest rates later this year, likely bringing the policy rate to 4% by year-end.
Meanwhile, the Euro was additionally pressured on Friday after CPI inflation in France and Spain came in below market estimates in March, which prompted investors to boost their bets on more rate cuts by the European Central Bank.
Markets are now pricing in about 60 basis points of ECB rate cuts by year-end, compared to 56 bps previously.
Also, there is now a 90% probability of a rate cut occurring at the central bank’s next policy meeting.
Additionally, Germany’s labor market showed more signs of weakness in March, as the number of unemployed persons went up by 26,000 to 2.922 million, or far above the expected 10,000 increase.
Apart from macro data, market players now awaited the upcoming April 2nd date on which US President Trump is expected to lay out reciprocal tariffs on America’s key trading partners.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said this week a trade war with the United States could have a fleeting impact on Euro Area inflation and a much more detrimental effect on GDP growth.
The EUR/NOK currency pair settled 0.14% higher at 11.3322 on Friday.
The exotic Forex pair lost 0.40% for the week.
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