WTI Holds Above $90 Amid Geopolitical & Data Caution

Key Moments

Geopolitical Backdrop Supports Crude but Limits Upside

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main US crude oil benchmark, is building on the prior session’s recovery on Friday, marking a second consecutive day of gains. Prices are extending a rebound from the $86.00 region, which was an over two-month low reached the day before. Even so, buying interest appears restrained, with WTI trading only slightly above the key $90.00 psychological level and up roughly 0.50% on the day amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty.

US-Iran tensions remain at the center of the market’s focus. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US may have to destroy the rest of Iran and added that people will know soon enough if he acts. He also stated that Iran and the US remain far apart on Tehran’s nuclear program, emphasizing that Iran cannot do anything pertaining to its nuclear program without approval from the US. At the same time, threats to commercial shipping continue despite a recovery in crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Together, these developments are maintaining a geopolitical risk premium in crude and providing underlying support to oil prices.

Political Shifts Temper Expectations of Further Escalation

On the domestic political front, a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections has tempered market expectations that President Donald Trump will resume military strikes against Iran. Top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer vowed on Wednesday to push for an end to the Iran war and said that his party could use control over government funding to press for that goal. These signals help sustain hopes for a diplomatic pathway to resolve an eight-month-old US-Iran war.

This potential for a negotiated outcome is, however, also acting as a counterweight to bullish momentum, as some investors appear reluctant to place aggressive long positions in crude. As a result, any substantial upside in WTI remains constrained despite the ongoing geopolitical risk premium.

Weekly Performance and Event Risks

Despite the latest bounce, WTI is still on track to log steep weekly losses of around 12%. Price action remains highly sensitive to headlines and developments related to the broader Middle East situation.

In addition, traders are positioning cautiously ahead of the widely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due later in the North American session. The release is expected to inject volatility into financial markets and could generate short-term trading setups in crude, with participants opting to stay on the sidelines until the data is out.

Technical Picture: Key Levels in Focus

From a technical standpoint, WTI continues to trade with a constructive near-term tone while holding above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $86.10. Price has recently moved above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the broader upswing at $89.88, turning that area into a nearby support zone.

The next important resistance level is located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $95.31, followed by the cycle high anchor near $104.09, which stands as a more distant upside objective.

On the downside, initial support is seen around $89.88 at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Below that, the 200-day SMA and the adjacent 50% retracement cluster in the $86.10–$85.49 band form a broader support area where dip-buying interest would be expected to reappear if prices correct more deeply.