Key Moments
- WTI trades above $96.00 after rebounding from a drop to the $94.30 area, gaining more than 1.0% during the Asian session.
- Ongoing US-Iran talks and comments from Iranian and US leaders support hopes for a diplomatic solution, limiting upside for crude.
- Technical structure remains constructive above key Fibonacci supports, with $95.18 acting as immediate support and $103.87 as major resistance.
Geopolitical Backdrop Supports Prices But Caps Aggressive Upside
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the primary US crude oil benchmark, attracted fresh buying interest during the Asian session on Tuesday, partially recovering from the prior session’s sharp decline toward the $94.30 region, which marked an over two-week low. The contract was last trading above the $96.00 level, up more than 1.0% on the day, as markets weighed mixed signals linked to tensions and diplomacy in the Middle East.
Several days of negotiations between Iranian officials and Qatari mediators did not produce a major breakthrough, despite Tehran putting forward revised proposals to reopen the strategically important Strait of Hormuz for two days. The lack of progress has kept a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, lending support to WTI.
At the same time, discussions between the United States and Iran were reported to be continuing. US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Iran wants to make a deal to end the war and that such an agreement could happen. In parallel, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran is seeking to resolve problems through dialogue. Together, these developments have bolstered expectations for a potential diplomatic path to ending the eight-month conflict, which in turn may act as a brake on aggressive gains in crude prices.
Given this backdrop, traders are likely to look for stronger follow-through buying before adopting a more assertive bullish stance and positioning for a continuation of the upward trend that has unfolded over roughly the past four months.
Technical Picture: Uptrend Intact Above Key Fibonacci Levels
From a chart perspective, WTI retains a constructive short-term tone while it trades above all major Fibonacci retracement levels. The 23.6% retracement at $95.18 is now serving as immediate support.
However, momentum indicators are flashing a more cautious signal. The Relative Strength Index is hovering near the 50.0 mark, pointing to neutral pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly negative. This combination indicates that the most recent decline is more consistent with a consolidation phase than with a full-fledged bearish reversal, as long as prices hold above underlying support zones.
| Level | Price | Technical Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate support | $95.18 | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement |
| Key downside area | $89.81 | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement |
| Medium-term base | $85.86 | 100-day SMA |
| Reinforcing support | $85.46 | 50.0% Fibonacci retracement |
| Deeper downside target | $81.12 | 61.8% Fibonacci retracement |
| Lower Fibonacci layer | $74.93 | Support zone |
| Lower Fibonacci layer | $67.05 | Support zone |
| Major resistance | $103.87 | Recent cycle high / Fibonacci anchor |
On the topside, the next major barrier is the recent cycle peak and Fibonacci anchor at $103.87. A clear break above that level would open the way for an extension of the prevailing bullish structure.
On the downside, the first significant support is located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $95.18. Below that, a broader demand area is seen around the 38.2% retracement level at $89.81, together with the 100-day simple moving average near $85.86 and the adjacent 50.0% retracement at $85.46, which together underpin a medium-term floor. A more pronounced decline would expose the 61.8% retracement at $81.12, followed by deeper Fibonacci layers at $74.93 and $67.05.
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