Pound Slips vs Dollar Ahead of Key US Data Releases

Key Moments

Dollar Demand Pressures GBP Near 1.3300

The GBP/USD pair comes under renewed selling interest in Asian trading on Thursday, halting the prior session’s advance from the 1.3275-1.3270 zone, which had marked a nearly two-week low. The move lower drags spot back toward the 1.3300 handle in recent dealings, driven by broad-based U.S. Dollar (USD) strength, although the absence of aggressive follow-through selling keeps bearish conviction in check for now.

Fed Rate Expectations and Geopolitics Support the Greenback

The USD recovers ground after its post-FOMC setback, as persistent inflation risks arising from higher energy prices sustain expectations for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate increase this year. Data from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicate that market participants are assigning roughly an 80% probability that the Fed will lift rates again in December. These rate expectations underpin the Greenback and weigh on GBP/USD.

Ongoing geopolitical concerns provide an additional boost to the safe-haven USD. Developments linked to the Middle East crisis remain in focus. US Vice President JD Vance reportedly sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an effort to revive peace talks. This comes as US President Donald Trump threatens to resume military action in the coming weeks. According to The Wall Street Journal, US officials have advised several countries and allies in the region to prepare for a possible short, intense military campaign against Iran after the November 3 midterm elections.

At the same time, regional mediators led by Qatar are attempting to restart discussions between the US and Iran to avert a renewed conflict. Against this backdrop, some USD bulls may prefer to await additional guidance on the Fed’s policy stance beyond December before significantly expanding long positions. As a result, attention is turning to the upcoming Advance US Q3 GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for further direction.

On the other side of the pair, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain a tighter policy stance may help limit deeper losses in GBP/USD, even as near-term momentum currently favors the Dollar.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook

On the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD maintains a slightly positive short-term structure while it trades above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) and mid-range Fibonacci support levels. Spot is positioned just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a cautiously constructive setup as prices explore the upper portion of the latest recovery band.

Initial resistance is located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3352, followed by the cycle high reference near 1.3417. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 1.3311. Below that, the 50.0% level at 1.3278 comes into view, with additional Fibonacci support levels at 1.3246 and 1.3199. The 1.3140 region serves as a more distant structural floor.

US Dollar Performance Versus Major Currencies

The table below summarizes the percentage change of the U.S. Dollar against a selection of major currencies today, with the USD showing its strongest performance versus the Euro.

The associated heat map is described as showing percentage moves among the major currencies, where the base currency is selected from the left-hand column and the quote currency is taken from the top row. For instance, choosing the U.S. Dollar as the base on the vertical axis and moving horizontally to the Japanese Yen displays the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).