Lilly Lifts Sales Outlook on GLP-1 Demand, Trims EPS

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: October 29, 2026

Key Moments

Eli Lilly raised its full-year revenue outlook to $91 billion-$92 billion after third-quarter sales and earnings exceeded analyst forecasts.
Strong demand for Mounjaro and Zepbound fueled a 53% volume increase in the third quarter, while realized prices declined 15% globally.
The company cut its adjusted profit guidance to $35.00-$36.00 per share due to $4.57 per share in acquired research charges tied mainly to the AtaiBeckley and Curevo deals.

Outlook Raised as GLP-1 Franchise Drives Top Line

Eli Lilly lifted its full-year revenue forecast and delivered better-than-expected third-quarter results, supported by accelerating demand for its injectable weight-loss treatments that helped ease investor concerns about pricing pressure in US government health programs.

The Indianapolis-based drugmaker now projects full-year revenue in a range of $91 billion to $92 billion, reflecting its strengthening position in the multibillion-dollar GLP-1 category relative to Danish competitor Novo Nordisk. Lilly said its performance in this market has helped propel the company to a market valuation of $1.2 trillion.

The revised outlook compares with the company’s prior full-year revenue guidance of $85.0 billion to $87.0 billion.

Profit Guidance Trimmed on Acquisition-Related Charges

Despite the upgraded sales view, Lilly reduced its adjusted earnings forecast to a range of $35.00 to $36.00 per share. The company cited $4.57 per share in acquired research charges from recent transactions, which more than offset a $4.07 per share increase in underlying profit guidance at the midpoint.

Lilly said these acquired research charges, which were recorded in the third quarter, stem primarily from its acquisitions of AtaiBeckley and Curevo. The company’s previous full-year earnings forecast had been $35.50 to $36.50 per share.

Third-Quarter Results Beat Wall Street Expectations

For the third quarter, Lilly reported revenue of $24.4 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $22.61 billion, according to LSEG data. Adjusted earnings came in at $7.48 per share, ahead of the $6.26 per share consensus estimate.

The quarter’s revenue figure included roughly $900 million of benefits, largely composed of $410 million in milestone payments linked to diabetes drug Jardiance. Lilly said these are the last milestone payments it expects to receive from Jardiance. Additional upside came from favorable changes to rebate and discount estimates.

Key Product Performance

Sales of Lilly’s GLP-1 products for diabetes and obesity were a central driver of the quarter’s beat versus expectations.

Product	Indication/Category	Q3 Sales	Analyst Estimate (LSEG)
Mounjaro	Diabetes	$10.72 billion	$10.16 billion
Zepbound	Obesity injection	$5.35 billion	$5.09 billion
Foundayo	Obesity pill	$184 million	$216.86 million

Pricing Pressure vs Volume Growth

The robust performance of Mounjaro and Zepbound has helped temper market concerns that aggressive discounting in US Medicare plans, including a $50-a-month price point for Medicare beneficiaries, might offset volume gains. Analysts at Bernstein said data indicated that Lilly had secured around 70% of the 700,000 Medicare patients who had recently started a GLP-1 treatment.

The new US pilot program has opened coverage to potentially millions of Medicare users aged 65 and older. At the same time, Lilly noted that much of its historical non-reimbursed volume has been channeled through its $449-a-month cash-pay platform, highlighting the importance of understanding how deeper discounts could affect profitability over time.

Foundayo Launch Under Investor Scrutiny

Lilly’s newer oral obesity therapy Foundayo generated $184 million in third-quarter sales, below analyst expectations of $216.86 million. Investors are paying close attention to the rollout of Foundayo as a gauge of Lilly’s ability to counter Novo Nordisk’s first-mover advantage with its oral version of Wegovy.

Although initial US prescription trends for Foundayo have lagged its Danish rival, some investors have remained relatively unconcerned about the early performance, anticipating that the Lilly pill could evolve into an important growth engine as it becomes available in more international markets.

In separate studies, oral Wegovy was associated with about a 14% reduction in body weight over 64 weeks, while Foundayo was linked to about an 11% reduction over 72 weeks.

Foundayo was introduced in the US and Britain earlier this year, and Lilly said it could potentially begin selling the pill in other European markets by year-end.

Global Pricing Dynamics

Across its portfolio, Lilly’s realized prices declined 15% in the third quarter, partially offsetting a 53% increase in volume. In the US, prices were down 7%. Lilly attributed this primarily to Zepbound, with some mitigation coming from favorable adjustments to rebate and discount estimates.

Outside the US, realized prices fell 29%, which the company said was driven mainly by Mounjaro being added to China’s national reimbursement drug list.

Pipeline Focus Turns to Next-Generation Retatrutide

While Lilly’s current injectable obesity treatments continue to post strong commercial results, analysts and investors are increasingly focusing on retatrutide, the company’s next-generation weight-loss candidate that is planned for regulatory submission next year.

Retatrutide has demonstrated average weight loss of 24% in midstage clinical trials, exceeding the results seen with currently marketed drugs, according to the company.