Key Moments
- EUR/JPY traded around 175.90 during Asian hours on Thursday after modest gains in the prior session.
- The pair remains capped below its nine- and 50-day EMAs, with the 14-day RSI near 35 indicating weak momentum.
- Immediate downside focus stays on the 12-month low at 175.10 and the descending channel floor around 174.60.
Technical Overview: Bearish Bias Intact
EUR/JPY edged lower during Asian trading on Thursday, hovering near 175.90 after recording modest gains in the previous session. The daily chart shows the cross trading within a descending channel, reinforcing a clearly bearish technical posture.
The pair continues to trade below both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping the near-term trend pointed lower. The shorter EMA remains positioned beneath the longer EMA, underscoring the downside bias. At the same time, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding around 35, reflecting subdued momentum that is nearing, but has not yet entered, oversold conditions.
Key Support Levels
On the downside, traders are closely watching the 12-month low at 175.10, which was set on October 23. A break below that level could expose the lower boundary of the descending channel, located around 174.60. If selling pressure extends beyond this combined support area, the technical roadmap would point toward the region around the 15-month low at 169.72.
| Support / Reference Level | Description |
|---|---|
| 175.10 | 12-month low, recorded on October 23 |
| 174.60 | Approximate lower boundary of descending channel |
| 169.72 | 15-month low region |
Upside Barriers and Reversal Triggers
On the topside, the initial hurdle remains the nine-day EMA at 176.32. Above that, the upper line of the descending channel, near 178.20, serves as the next area of interest. Additional resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA, currently around 178.99.
A decisive move through the 50-day EMA would mark a significant technical shift by breaking above the medium-term average. Such a development would signal a potential bullish reversal and could pave the way for the cross to probe the zone surrounding the all-time high at 187.95, which was reached on April 17.
| Resistance Level | Description |
|---|---|
| 176.32 | Nine-day EMA – initial resistance |
| 178.20 | Approximate upper boundary of descending channel |
| 178.99 | 50-day EMA – medium-term resistance |
| 187.95 | All-time high, set on April 17 |
EUR/JPY Daily Chart Context
The overall daily setup for EUR/JPY remains dominated by the descending channel configuration, the alignment of the short- and medium-term EMAs, and a soft RSI profile. Together, these elements continue to favor sellers unless or until price action can reclaim and sustain levels above the key moving averages.
Yen Performance in the G10 Space
Strategists at Rabobank point to improving relative performance of the Japanese Yen within the G10 universe, stating that “the JPY is the second best performing G10 currency in the half year to date after the NOK” and “the fourth best performing G10 currency in the year to date.” They emphasize, however, that this strength has not been entirely self-driven, noting that “significant amounts of FX intervention in favour of the JPY have been a notable factor in supporting it this year.”
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