Key Moments
- EUR/JPY trades around 176.20 during Asian hours on Tuesday, extending gains for a second day but remaining within a bearish technical setup.
- The pair stays below its nine- and 50-day EMAs, with a 14-day RSI at 35.98 indicating weak upside momentum rather than an oversold condition.
- Key supports sit near 175.10 and 174.80, while resistance levels cluster at 176.60, 178.50, and 179.26.
Technical Overview: Bias Remains to the Downside
EUR/JPY trades firmer for a second consecutive session, hovering near 176.20 during Asian hours on Tuesday. Despite this short-term stabilisation, analysis of the daily chart shows the cross moving within a descending channel, reinforcing a clearly bearish technical bias.
The cross remains under pressure as it continues to trade beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). With these short- and medium-term averages positioned above spot, upside attempts appear constrained. At the same time, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 35.98, signaling muted upside momentum while stopping short of flagging an outright oversold condition.
Key Levels: Support and Resistance in Focus
On the downside, EUR/JPY may revisit the 12-month low at 175.10, which was recorded on October 23. A break of that level would put focus on the lower boundary of the descending channel, located around 174.80. A sustained move below this confluence of support would potentially open the way toward the region surrounding the 15-month low at 169.72.
On the topside, the first significant obstacle is the nine-day EMA at 176.60. Above that, the upper edge of the descending channel, near 178.50, forms the next resistance area. Additional resistance is seen at the 50-day EMA of 179.26. A decisive break above this medium-term average would represent a bullish reversal, leaving room for the cross to move toward the area around the all-time high at 187.95, which was reached on April 17.
EUR/JPY – Technical Reference Levels
| Level Type | Price/Value | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Current price area | 176.20 | Trading level during Asian hours on Tuesday |
| 14-day RSI | 35.98 | Indicates subdued upside momentum |
| Nine-day EMA | 176.60 | Initial resistance and primary near-term barrier |
| Upper channel boundary | 178.50 | Next resistance within descending channel |
| 50-day EMA | 179.26 | Key medium-term resistance; break would signal bullish reversal |
| 12-month low | 175.10 | Support level reached on October 23 |
| Lower channel boundary | 174.80 | Support aligned with descending channel base |
| 15-month low region | 169.72 | Deeper support zone if current supports give way |
| All-time high area | 187.95 | Upside reference point reached on April 17 |
Policy Backdrop: BoJ Expected to Stay on Hold
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad notes that the Bank of Japan is “widely expected to keep rates on hold at 1.25% and assess September’s 25bps hike before tightening again,” underscoring market expectations that policymakers will pause to evaluate the impact of the recent move before considering any further adjustment to the policy rate.
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