Key Moments
- WTI extends its bearish gap-down start to the week, trading below the mid-$100.00 area after reaching a five-month high on Friday.
- Signals of possible de-escalation in Middle East tensions weigh on prices, but unresolved US-Iran issues and Houthi threats keep the geopolitical risk premium in place.
- Key technical supports sit at $99.30, $97.83, and $96.84, while a move above $103.29 could clear the way for the ongoing bullish trend to continue.
Geopolitics Pressure Prices at the Start of the Week
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, starts the new week under pressure, extending a bearish gap-down move and pulling back from the five-month high reached on Friday. During the Asian session, prices slip below the mid-$100.00 range, although the downside appears constrained by ongoing geopolitical risks.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday ruled out immediate military action against Iran. In earlier comments, Trump indicated that the US might either “finish the job” or pursue a potential agreement with Tehran in response to mounting Iranian and Houthi threats against American interests in the region. These signals raise expectations of a possible easing in Middle East tensions and trigger profit-taking in crude at the weekly open.
At the same time, an unnamed US official told an Israeli news channel that Trump was prepared to shift gears on Iran and that military strikes no longer appeared to be a question of if, but of when. In addition, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen threatened on Sunday that they will keep attacking Saudi Arabia’s King Khalid Airport in Riyadh. Alongside this, stalled US-Iran negotiations help maintain the geopolitical risk premium, providing an underlying floor for WTI prices.
Technical Picture: Bulls Still in Control Above Key Support Zone
From a technical standpoint, WTI continues to display a constructive near-term bias. The contract is trading above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and holds above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent advance from the monthly low, reinforcing a bullish backdrop.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly above the zero line with a modestly positive reading, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 55, pointing to steady upward momentum rather than overbought conditions.
Key Levels to Watch
Given this setup, any further pullback is expected to attract buyers near successive support levels. The first notable floor emerges around $99.30, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Below that, the 50-period SMA near $97.83 and the 38.2% retracement at $96.84 combine to form a broader demand band that could cushion deeper declines.
On the upside, the immediate barrier is located at the Fibonacci reference level around $103.29. A sustained break above this threshold would reinforce the prevailing bullish trend and potentially pave the way for an extension of the recent upside move.
| WTI Technical Levels (4-hour chart) | Price | Indicator / Description |
|---|---|---|
| First support | $99.30 | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of upswing from monthly low |
| Secondary support | $97.83 | 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) |
| Additional support | $96.84 | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement |
| Immediate resistance | $103.29 | Fibonacci anchor / near-term upside hurdle |
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