Key Moments
- EUR/GBP recovered from 17-month lows near 0.8370 but has so far failed to sustain a move above 0.8400.
- High Oil prices and concerns over France’s fiscal situation are seen limiting the scope of any Euro recovery.
- Stronger UK inflation and GDP data have reinforced expectations for a potential Bank of England rate hike in November.
EUR/GBP Attempts Modest Recovery
The Euro (EUR) is staging a mild rebound against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday after a sharp decline of more than 2.7% from late September peaks drove the Relative Strength Index into deeply oversold territory across most timeframes. EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8390, having bounced from fresh 17-month lows near 0.8370 recorded on Wednesday, with the 0.8400 region acting as a ceiling for the cross so far.
Improved risk sentiment is lending some support to the Euro, but the upside appears constrained. Elevated Oil prices and persistent worries about France’s fiscal position, along with the government’s struggle to address those concerns, are expected to limit the depth of any recovery in the pair.
Macro Drivers: UK Strength vs. Eurozone Concerns
The Pound remains underpinned as recent UK data has reinforced the case for tighter monetary policy. Hotter-than-expected inflation figures released on Wednesday, together with last week’s positive Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, have strengthened the view that the Bank of England (BoE) could raise interest rates at its November meeting.
Later in the day, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to address the press and may offer additional indications about the policy outlook for next month. In the Euro area, European Central Bank (ECB) official and Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta is due to speak ahead of the publication of the European Commission’s preliminary Consumer Confidence reading.
Technical Picture: Correction Within a Bearish Trend
EUR/GBP is trading at 0.8393, with the broader downtrend still dominating after four consecutive weeks of losses. The current move is viewed as a modest corrective bounce as the 4-hour Relative Strength Index recovers from oversold territory but remains below the 40 level. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is marginally positive, yet overall technical signals suggest that rallies are likely to attract selling interest.
Immediate resistance is located at Wednesday’s high around the 0.8400 zone, followed by the peaks posted on October 19 and 20, near 0.8430. On the downside, a break below Wednesday’s low around 0.8373 would expose the next bearish objectives at the May 2025 trough near 0.8355 and the April 2025 low around 0.8320.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected on October 22 at 07:00 to say that EUR/GBP has bounced up from 17-month lows, in the first bullet point, and not EUR/USD as previously reported.)
Euro Performance Against Major Currencies
The table below presents the percentage change of the Euro against major currencies today. According to this snapshot, the Euro showed its strongest relative performance versus the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.61% | -0.15% | 0.20% | 0.13% | -0.38% |
| EUR | 0.13% | — | 0.01% | -0.51% | -0.06% | 0.33% | 0.26% | -0.28% |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.01% | — | -0.53% | -0.09% | 0.30% | 0.22% | -0.29% |
| JPY | 0.61% | 0.51% | 0.53% | — | 0.45% | 0.82% | 0.72% | 0.23% |
| CAD | 0.15% | 0.06% | 0.09% | -0.45% | — | 0.37% | 0.30% | -0.22% |
| AUD | -0.20% | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.82% | -0.37% | — | -0.09% | -0.59% |
| NZD | -0.13% | -0.26% | -0.22% | -0.72% | -0.30% | 0.09% | — | -0.48% |
| CHF | 0.38% | 0.28% | 0.29% | -0.23% | 0.22% | 0.59% | 0.48% | — |
The heat map above shows percentage changes of major currencies against one another. The currency listed on the left acts as the base, while the currency along the top serves as the quote. For instance, selecting the Euro from the left-hand column and moving horizontally to the US Dollar cell provides the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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