Key Moments
- WTI trades near $98.40 per barrel in Asian hours on Tuesday after modest losses in the prior session.
- Middle East crude flows drop to a seven-day average of about 8.5 million barrels per day from more than 20 million barrels per day the previous week, according to Kpler.
- Persian Gulf shipments reportedly recover to roughly 80% of pre-war levels as the U.S. moves to authorize sanctioned tankers and eases Russian sanctions for India.
WTI Rebounds as Geopolitical Tensions Persist
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures advance after a modest pullback in the prior session, with prices trading around $98.40 per barrel during Asian dealings on Tuesday. The recovery reflects a market recalibrating the impact of heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe alongside signs that energy exports from the Persian Gulf are gradually normalizing.
Recent price action shows crude retracing earlier declines as traders reassess supply threats stemming from regional conflicts and disruptions to maritime trade routes, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz.
Maritime Security Strains Crude Flows
In the Middle East, Iran continues to exert authority over the Strait of Hormuz, with maritime authorities reporting multiple attacks on commercial vessels. Regional tensions have intensified as Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen exchange strikes, while Russia and Ukraine have concurrently resumed targeted operations against energy infrastructure.
These developments have triggered a sharp, though temporary, disruption in trade flows. Data from analytics provider Kpler indicate that crude shipments originating from the Middle East fell to a seven-day average of about 8.5 million barrels per day last week, compared with more than 20 million barrels per day the week before. The decline coincided with at least 10 confirmed incidents involving commercial ships.
| Metric | Recent Level | Previous Level | Source / Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI price (Asian hours, Tuesday) | $98.40 per barrel | Modest losses in prior day | Market trading levels |
| Middle East crude flows (7-day average, last week) | About 8.5 million barrels per day | More than 20 million barrels per day (previous week) | Kpler |
| Persian Gulf oil shipments | Roughly 80% of pre-war levels | 100% (pre-war baseline) | US Energy Secretary Chris Wright |
| Estimated size of global “dark fleet” | About 1,600 vessels | – | U.S. policy targeting sanctioned tankers |
Supply Routes Gradually Normalize
Despite the recent string of incidents, key supply arteries are showing signs of stabilization. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to approximately 80% of pre-war volumes, although flows of refined products remain constrained.
As part of efforts to support global energy availability, the Trump administration is moving to permit the sale of sanctioned oil tankers so they can be used for lawful crude transport. The initiative is aimed at a so-called “dark fleet” of roughly 1,600 vessels that operate under sanctions or opaque ownership structures.
Policy Moves Ease Supply Concerns for India
In a further policy step with market implications, President Trump’s decision to grant a waiver on Russian sanctions has reduced supply uncertainty for India, a significant buyer of Russian crude. The waiver is expected to support broader diplomatic engagement and improve prospects for a trade deal between New Delhi and Washington.
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