Key Moments
- Brent crude opened near USD 108/bbl after having traded around USD 109/bbl on Friday, according to Danske Research Team.
- The pullback followed President Trump’s decision to waive key Russia-related sanctions and tariffs, potentially enabling higher fuel exports.
- Despite the price decline, supply risks remained elevated due to Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and continued threats to Gulf crude flows.
Market Overview
Danske Research Team reported that Brent crude futures opened lower, trading close to USD 108/bbl after having touched about USD 109/bbl on Friday. The softer start followed President Trump’s move to waive significant Russia-related sanctions and tariffs, a step that could permit an increase in fuel exports.
Analysts at Danske emphasized that, even with the immediate price reaction, underlying supply concerns have not eased. They highlighted ongoing geopolitical and security developments that continue to pose risks to global crude flows.
Price Action and Supply Risk Factors
In its latest commentary, Danske described the immediate reaction in the oil market:
“In commodities, Brent crude opened lower this morning, trading around USD 108/bbl after reaching around USD 109/bbl on Friday. The decline followed President Trump’s waiver of key sanctions and tariffs on Russia, potentially allowing higher fuel exports.”
The research note also underscored that the broader supply backdrop remains precarious:
“Still, supply risks remained elevated, as Ukraine struck Russian energy infrastructure on Sunday and attacks on vessels near Hormuz continued to threaten Gulf crude flows.”
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Brent price Friday | Around USD 109/bbl |
| Brent opening level | Around USD 108/bbl |
| Main price driver | Waiver of key Russia-related sanctions and tariffs by President Trump |
| Key ongoing risks | Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure; threats to Gulf crude flows near Hormuz |
Deepening Policy Rift Between U.S. and EU
Danske highlighted that the sanctions waiver has intensified a growing policy divide between the United States and the European Union over Russia. The note stated:
“In geopolitics, the split between the EU and the US on Russia policy widened over the weekend. EU leaders meeting in Brussels vowed to maintain sanctions on Russia and sustain support for Ukraine, with von der Leyen saying no sanctions would be lifted unless Russia stops the war and that the EU is working on a 22nd sanctions package.”
Reactions from Kyiv and Diplomatic Signals
The move by Washington drew criticism from Ukraine’s leadership. Danske cited President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s response:
“Zelenskyy criticised the waiver as ‘wrong’, saying it would help Moscow and prolong the war. However, concerns about US support eased somewhat on Sunday after Zelenskyy said US intelligence-sharing had resumed and that he had discussed next diplomatic steps with Trump envoys, including a possible new peace meeting this week.”
Details of the U.S. Sanctions Waiver
The report also summarized the specifics of the decision taken by President Trump and his administration:
“Trump then signed an executive order on Friday waiving key Russia-related sanctions and tariffs under the Graham Act, including measures targeting Russian goods and countries buying Russian oil and gas, shortly before they were due to take effect. Secretary of State Rubio said Trump would use up to 60 days to assess the economic impact, while also defending a separate agreement for Russia to increase diesel supplies to the US and global markets.”
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