EUR/JPY Rises but Bearish Trend Persists Below MA

Key Moments

EUR/JPY Supported as BoJ Seen Avoiding Consecutive Hikes

EUR/JPY is firmer around 177.30 in early European trading on Wednesday, as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR). The move reflects a cautious interest rate outlook from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), while market participants await comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde later in the day.

According to Bloomberg, BoJ policymakers are inclined to avoid a rare consecutive interest rate increase this month, although they are still considering the option of tightening as early as December. The report noted that officials intend to closely assess incoming economic data to determine whether an additional hike at the December meeting is justified.

Data from the overnight swaps market, cited by Bloomberg, showed participants are assigning nearly a 10% probability to a rate increase this month. Expectations for a move by December climb sharply, with pricing indicating an 88% chance of an adjustment by then.

Technical Outlook: Bearish Structure Intact Below 100-Day SMA

On the daily chart, EUR/JPY continues to display a bearish short-term tone as spot trades firmly below both the middle line of the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). The pair is also capped beneath the upper Bollinger Band, reinforcing a constrained upside profile.

The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 36.41, subdued but still above oversold levels. This points to relatively weak selling pressure, indicating that the current move reflects ongoing downside bias rather than a completed or exhausted bearish phase.

Key Technical Levels

Upside and downside reference levels for EUR/JPY can be summarized as follows:

On the topside, the first notable resistance is located near 178.45 at the Bollinger middle band and 20-period SMA. A move through this zone would put focus on the 180.00 psychological mark. A decisive break above 180.00 could then open the path toward the upper Bollinger boundary at 181.05 and, beyond that, the 100-day SMA at 183.05, which represents a more substantial structural hurdle.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the lower edge of the Bollinger Band around 175.90. Below that, attention turns to the October 20 low, 2025 at 175.34, followed by the October 2, 2025 low at 172.27 as deeper support areas.