Bitcoin Holds Near $83.6K Amid ETF Outflows, Risks

Key Moments

Macro and Geopolitical Backdrop Weighs on BTC

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $83,600 on Monday, stabilizing after a 3.1% decline last week. Risk appetite remains fragile as institutional demand shows signs of cooling and geopolitical developments deliver conflicting signals, limiting the upside for the so-called Crypto King.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday claimed Russia and Ukraine have agreed to an ”energy ceasefire”, but he offered no details on it, as per The Guardian. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” he wrote on his Truth Social network.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that he was not aware of the “energy ceasefire” between Ukraine and Russia announced by Trump, but added that if Moscow agreed to it, Kyiv would accept it.

However, addressing the conference virtually on Monday, Zelenskyy said it is clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin “does not read Truth Social”, the site where the US president posted his ceasefire declaration. As we have been reporting, Russia’s strikes continued despite the announcement. “Immediately after the post, Russia launched a targeted strike on a power plant in Kharkiv, causing further damage to our energy system,” Zelenskyy said, noting that Ukraine is facing a wave of escalatory attacks from Russia ahead of the winter.

In addition, last week Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and that the two sides were holding productive discussions, which supported mild recovery in BTC.

However, the Saudi-led coalition said on Sunday that an unidentified projectile hit a passenger terminal at King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The Houthis swiftly claimed the attacks, saying they were a response to “Saudi aggression.”

Collectively, these headlines highlight lingering geopolitical risk and inconsistent signals, which are keeping investors cautious toward risk-sensitive assets such as Bitcoin.

ETF Flows Signal Softer Institutional Engagement

Institutional participation in Bitcoin showed clear softness last week, aligning with the recent price pullback. Data from SoSoValue indicate that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $681.10 million in net outflows over the week, ending a run of three consecutive weeks of net inflows.

If this withdrawal trend persists or accelerates in the coming days, it could reinforce downside pressure on BTC prices.

Total Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow weekly chart. Source: SoSoValue

Weekly Technical Setup: Pullback From Key Fibonacci Barrier

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin declined 3.19% last week after failing to clear the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,823, calculated from the August 2024 low of $49,000 to the October 2025 all-time high of $126,199. At the start of the new week on Monday, BTC trades around $83,500.

Should the current corrective phase persist, price risk appears skewed toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,661. This area roughly aligns with the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is positioned at $76,614, creating a broader support band.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart stands near 59, indicating mildly positive momentum while still below overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains comfortably above zero, signaling that underlying upward pressure is intact even as BTC backs away from nearby resistance.

If buying interest returns and BTC resumes its climb, potential upside reference points include the 50% retracement barrier at $87,823, followed by the 100-week SMA located at $89,746.

BTC/USDT weekly chart

Daily Chart: Constructive Trend Above Key EMAs

On the daily chart, Bitcoin maintains a generally constructive technical tone, consolidating well above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). These EMAs are clustered in a band between roughly $75,500 and $80,200, providing a layered zone of dynamic support.

The daily RSI sits around 53, consistent with moderate positive momentum and far from overbought conditions. At the same time, the MACD histogram is below the zero line, pointing to still-fragile bullish follow-through even as the overall trend backdrop remains supportive.

On the upside, initial resistance is identified near the horizontal barrier around $85,000. A decisive daily close above this level would signal scope for a new leg higher in BTC.

On the downside, the first dynamic support is the 50-day EMA near $80,191, followed by the 100-day EMA around $76,403 and the 200-day EMA near $75,501. A more pronounced correction toward prior horizontal support zones at $66,500 and $62,300 would likely attract dip-buying interest while preserving the broader bullish structure.