ING Sees Delayed Polish Hikes as Zloty Range Edges Up

Key Moments

NBP Outlook and Zloty Trading Range

ING strategist Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to delay interest rate increases until early 2027, citing new government actions on fuel prices that he believes give policymakers room to remain on hold.

Commenting on the latest communication from the central bank, he noted that the National Bank of Poland’s press conference with Governor Adam Glapiński initially sounded hawkish, with an emphasis on inflation risks and the impact of higher energy costs. However, the core market message was that, in the Governor’s view, a rate hike in November is unlikely.

Taborsky highlighted that the government’s recent initiative to reduce fuel prices appears sufficient for the NBP for now, allowing it to extend its wait-and-see stance. He stated that, unless November inflation data delivers a major upside surprise, rate increases are likely to be postponed until the first quarter of 2027, which he described as ING’s baseline scenario.

Against this backdrop, he expects the zloty to trade weaker within its current band. While EUR/PLN has been broadly unchanged, ING maintains its view that the pair’s trading corridor will move up from 4.360-4.380 to 4.380-4.400. This anticipated shift is attributed to support for the US dollar, rising energy prices, and deteriorating risk sentiment across the eurozone.

Romanian Rates on Hold as Politics Drive the Leu

Turning to Romania, Taborsky observed that the National Bank of Romania left its policy rate unchanged at 6.50%, in line with expectations. He noted that the accompanying statement did not introduce many fresh elements.

Market attention instead remains centered on domestic political developments. Taborsky pointed out that EUR/RON moved lower following news reports that raised expectations for the formation of a new government under technocratic leadership, supported by the original coalition parties.

Even with this pullback, he stressed that EUR/RON is still trading above 5.340 and is materially higher than in late September, when downside pressure on the leu first emerged. In his view, if a new parliamentary majority is successfully formed, the most likely outcome is that EUR/RON will stabilize around its current levels rather than triggering a sustained rally in the Romanian leu.

Central Europe FX: Policy Caution Amid External Headwinds

Across Central and Eastern Europe, Taborsky’s assessment underscores a cautious policy stance from both the Polish and Romanian central banks. In Poland, the combination of government measures on fuel prices and concerns over inflation dynamics supports a prolonged pause in tightening, accompanied by expectations for a slightly weaker zloty trading range.

In Romania, steady policy settings at 6.50% intersect with a politically driven FX narrative, where the leu’s near-term performance is seen as closely tied to progress in forming a new government and consolidating a parliamentary majority.

For investors focused on regional FX markets, ING’s view highlights the importance of monitoring both domestic policy decisions and broader external factors such as US dollar strength, energy market developments, and shifts in global risk appetite.