Key Moments
- EUR/JPY traded around 177.40 during Asian hours on Friday, posting gains for a second straight session while remaining inside a descending channel.
- The pair stayed below both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs, with the 14-day RSI at 35.8, indicating ongoing but moderating downside momentum.
- ECB’s Moulin highlighted inflation as “100% energy” with no second-round effects, a stance seen as mildly dovish but tempered by warnings of a developing financial shock.
Technical Overview: Bearish Structure Intact
EUR/JPY added to recent gains for a second consecutive session, trading near 177.40 during Asian hours on Friday. Despite the short-term bounce, daily chart analysis shows the cross still trending lower within a descending channel, pointing to a sustained bearish bias.
The pair continues to trade beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the shorter EMA also positioned below the longer one. This configuration, combined with price action remaining under both EMAs, suggests that any recoveries are encountering resistance from overhead supply. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 35.8, just above oversold territory, reflecting continued, though somewhat easing, downward pressure rather than a clear bullish reversal signal.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
On the downside, initial support is seen near the lower boundary of the descending channel around 176.20. A break below this area would bring into focus the 11-month low at 175.70, which was recorded in November 2025. If that confluence of support fails to hold, the next level on the radar would be the 14-month low at 169.72.
On the upside, the first notable resistance is located at the nine-day EMA, currently around 177.76. Above that, the 50-day EMA at 180.77 represents the next significant barrier. A sustained move through both moving averages would open the way for a potential test of the upper boundary of the descending channel near 184.00. Beyond that, the all-time high of 187.95, set on April 17, would be the next major target.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
ECB Commentary: Energy-Driven Inflation and Policy Signaling
ECB’s Moulin delivered remarks that were assessed as having a mid-range market impact of 6.2/10, matching the historic average on FXS Speechtracker and indicating no meaningful change in the perceived policy trajectory. The characterization of inflation as being “100% energy” and the lack of second-round effects were interpreted as mildly dovish, implying limited pressure for aggressive tightening even as an inflationary shock is acknowledged.
At the same time, Moulin’s observation that the geopolitical shock is evolving into a financial shock introduced a more cautious note, softening the dovish implications. The emphasis on resilient Euro area growth supports the impression that the ECB can maintain a patient approach, reinforcing a balanced stance that is unlikely to significantly alter Euro expectations in the near term.
Euro Performance Against Major Currencies
The table below presents the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) against a selection of major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.14% | -0.09% | 0.09% | -0.09% | -0.27% | -0.30% | -0.22% | |
| EUR | 0.14% | 0.06% | 0.23% | 0.06% | -0.12% | -0.13% | -0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.09% | -0.06% | 0.21% | 0.04% | -0.15% | -0.19% | -0.09% | |
| JPY | -0.09% | -0.23% | -0.21% | -0.18% | -0.37% | -0.38% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.09% | -0.06% | -0.04% | 0.18% | -0.21% | -0.21% | -0.11% | |
| AUD | 0.27% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.37% | 0.21% | -0.01% | 0.10% | |
| NZD | 0.30% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 0.38% | 0.21% | 0.01% | 0.10% | |
| CHF | 0.22% | 0.09% | 0.09% | 0.29% | 0.11% | -0.10% | -0.10% |
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