Key Moments
- Ethereum traded at $2,470 after dropping nearly 4% and falling below $2,500, marking a third straight day of losses.
- US spot ETH ETFs saw roughly $565 million in net outflows over seven consecutive days, while exchange reserves rose by 233K ETH in two weeks.
- Key downside levels include support near $2,355 and the 100-day EMA at $2,338, with resistance starting around $2,548.
Macro Backdrop Weighs on Ethereum
Ethereum (ETH) traded at $2,470 after sliding below $2,500 on Thursday, extending its pullback for a third consecutive session with a loss of nearly 4% on the day.
The move came amid a backdrop of higher Oil prices and rising US Treasury yields in recent days. The 10Y Note Yield touched a 24-year peak of 5.35%, while the 30Y Note Yield moved above 5.70% earlier in the day, triggering broad-based selling across the crypto space. Yields later eased to 5.23% and 5.60%, respectively, after President Trump stated in a Truth Social post that the US will not attack Iran “at any time prior” to the US midterm elections on November 3.
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, released on Wednesday, indicated that policymakers anticipate another interest rate increase before year-end, although no specific timing was provided.
ETF Outflows and Rising Exchange Balances Signal Mounting Sell Pressure
Both institutional and retail selling have intensified as recent macro and policy developments unfolded.
US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have not recorded any inflows so far this week and posted net outflows of $160.7 million on Wednesday, according to SoSoValue data. This marked the seventh straight day of net redemptions, totaling roughly $565 million over that stretch.
Simultaneously, the pace of ETH moving onto centralized platforms has increased. Since Monday, Ethereum exchange reserves have risen by about 132K ETH, bringing the two-week increase to 233K ETH.
| Flow / Balance Metric | Recent Change | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| US spot ETH ETF net flows | $160.7 million outflows | Wednesday |
| Cumulative US spot ETH ETF net flows | ~$565 million outflows | Last 7 days |
| Exchange reserves (weekly change) | +132K ETH | Since Monday |
| Exchange reserves (biweekly change) | +233K ETH | Past 2 weeks |
Historically, an increase in an asset’s balances on exchanges has often aligned with stronger selling pressure, which is consistent with ETH’s recent price behavior.
Whales and Retail Wallets Trim Holdings
On-chain data suggests that selling has been broad-based across different wallet sizes over the past two weeks.
Large holders with balances between 10K-100K ETH have reduced their positions by 151K ETH. At the same time, smaller cohorts have also been net sellers: wallets holding 1K-10K ETH and those with 100-1K ETH have collectively reduced their balances by roughly 276K ETH.
| Wallet Cohort | Balance Change | Period |
|---|---|---|
| 10K-100K ETH | -151K ETH | Past 2 weeks |
| 1K-10K ETH and 100-1K ETH (combined) | -276K ETH | Past 2 weeks |
Derivatives Market: Heavy Ethereum Liquidations
In derivatives trading, Ethereum has been at the forefront of forced position unwinds. Over the past 24 hours, $351.6 million of ETH positions have been liquidated, according to Coinglass data.
Long positions bore the brunt of the move, with $294.6 million in liquidations, while short positions accounted for $57 million.
| Position Type | Liquidations | Period |
|---|---|---|
| Total ETH positions | $351.6 million | Past 24 hours |
| Long positions | $294.6 million | Past 24 hours |
| Short positions | $57 million | Past 24 hours |
Technical Picture: Key Levels for ETH
On the daily timeframe, ETH is pulling back from last week’s highs and has slipped below its short-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). Price has broken beneath the 20-day EMA at $2,631 and the 50-day EMA at $2,502, but remains above the 100-day EMA at $2,338, which is currently acting as a broader trend support zone. This configuration points to a neutral-to-bearish bias in the near term.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 37, indicating weak momentum, while the Stochastic reading near 18 signals oversold conditions that may slow additional downside, though it does not necessarily imply an immediate recovery.
On the downside, initial support emerges around a horizontal area near $2,355, followed by the 100-day EMA. A daily close below this support cluster would open the door to lower levels at $2,204 and $1,972.
On the upside, immediate resistance is now seen at the horizontal barrier at $2,548. Above that, a wider supply zone is defined by the 20-day EMA and the $2,636 horizontal level, before a more significant cap near $2,781.
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