Key Moments
- WTI trades around $91.75 in early Asian hours on Friday after a two-day advance.
- The US is considering deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group and 10,000 personnel to the Persian Gulf.
- EIA data show US crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels in the week ending September 25, defying expectations for a 300,000-barrel decline.
WTI Pauses After Rally Amid Heightened Middle East Tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is hovering near $91.75 in early Asian trading on Friday, consolidating after gains over the previous two sessions. The price action is stabilizing as investors react to reports that the United States is considering a larger military presence in the Middle East.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the Pentagon may soon deploy a third aircraft-carrier strike group and 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf. The report followed comments from US President Donald Trump, who said that increased military strikes against Iran were “possible” after the November midterm elections. WTI experienced a volatile trading day as market participants weighed prospects for improved crude flows from the region against the possibility of further geopolitical escalation.
Market Sensitivity to Supply Risks and Policy Moves
Analysts at ANZ Group Holdings Ltd., Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes, emphasized the market’s vulnerability to fresh price spikes. “The oil market is highly susceptible to another spike in prices, with inventories at low levels following six months of drawdowns,” they said. “Investors are increasingly concerned that Iran will respond to the military buildup with attacks on US assets and energy infrastructure in the region,” they added.
On the policy front, Bloomberg reported that on Thursday the Trump administration urged the European Union (EU) to release diesel from national emergency reserves to help avoid US export restrictions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on European partners to contribute to easing the tightness in global diesel supply.
US Inventory Surprise: Crude Stocks Edge Higher
US crude oil inventories posted an unexpected build last week. Data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that stockpiles for the week ending September 25 increased by 922,000 barrels. That compared with a prior weekly rise of 2.969 million barrels and contradicted market expectations for a 300,000-barrel decline.
| US Crude Inventory Data (EIA) | Barrels |
|---|---|
| Change – week ending September 25 | +922,000 |
| Previous weekly change | +2,969,000 |
| Market consensus | -300,000 |
Export Ban Concerns and Eurozone Growth Risks
Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes highlighted the intricacies of the refined products market, stressing that “crude oil is refined into a range of petroleum products, including gasoline, naphtha, paraffin, diesel, and others” which “are then shipped through pipelines or loaded onto vessels and transported to customers.” Within that framework, he warned that “banning exports, as proposed by President Trump, may simply, at least in the short term, lead to diesel accumulating in storage tanks rather than lowering diesel prices for US consumers, some of whom are located a long way from the regions where excess supply might develop.”
Juckes also drew attention to broader macroeconomic implications. He noted that “Consensus Eurozone growth forecasts ticked up to 1.3% in September, but will the next update bring a downward revision if bond yields and oil prices continue to rise for much longer?”
Technical Picture: Near-Term Uptrend Remains Intact
On the daily chart, WTI US Oil maintains a constructive short-term bias. Prices are trading comfortably above the 100-day moving average and remain underpinned by the lower Bollinger Band, while the middle Bollinger Band currently provides the first notable resistance zone. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51.81, indicating neutral conditions that point more toward consolidation following the recent climb than a clear sign of exhaustion.
On the upside, initial resistance is located near the Bollinger 20-period simple moving average around $93.70. A stronger bullish extension could bring the upper Bollinger Band near $100.80 into focus as a potential target area if buying momentum resumes. On the downside, immediate support is situated close to the prevailing price level around $91.80. Deeper pullbacks would likely see more robust demand emerging near the lower Bollinger Band at $86.65 and subsequently at the 100-period moving average at $84.65, where a more substantial correction could be challenged.
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