WTI Rises as Sanctions & Supply Signals Drive Sentiment

Key Moments

WTI Climbs as Market Focuses on Iran Sanctions and U.S. Policy Signals

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude benchmark, traded near $88.30 during the early European session on Wednesday. The contract drifted higher after U.S. President Donald Trump rejected the idea that he would be prepared to relax sanctions on Iran. Market participants were also positioning ahead of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) crude stock report due later on Wednesday.

Axios reported that mediation efforts by Qatar between the United States and Iran had not produced a breakthrough, with both sides remaining entrenched. The absence of progress has increased worries that the diplomatic deadlock could eventually translate into renewed tensions.

Trump also dismissed an Axios report stating that he had granted Iran sanctions relief and released frozen Iranian assets in exchange for concrete Iranian actions on its nuclear program.

“Continued uncertainty over sanctions relief and negotiations is keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices,” said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet, a New Delhi-based research firm. “Improving supplies could cap further gains, but renewed disruption or an escalation in tensions could trigger another rally,” she added.

Inventory Data: API Points to Another Crude Build

U.S. crude inventories increased again last week, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API). For the week ending September 25, API estimated that U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 1.019 million barrels, following a build of 1.786 million barrels in the preceding week.

Recent Price Weakness Linked to Saudi Exports and US-Iran Developments

Analysts at ING reported that oil prices “fell sharply on Wednesday,” with Brent “dropping below $99/bbl” and WTI “trading near $89/bbl.” They attributed the decline to “expectations of rising Saudi crude exports, diplomatic progress between the US and Iran, and a larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories,” which together “helped ease concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.” According to ING, Brent has now fallen for “six consecutive sessions, its longest losing streak since August 2025,” with “cumulative losses” of “more than 9.5%.”

On the supply front, ING highlighted that “Saudi Arabia has restarted operations at its East-West pipeline and could soon resume exports from the Yanbu terminal.” The route, which “bypasses the Strait of Hormuz,” has a capacity of “around 7m b/d” and is “expected to gradually restore lost export flows, potentially increasing global crude supplies in the coming weeks.”

Geopolitical dynamics remain a major driver. ING noted that President Donald Trump has described recent interactions with Iranian officials as “very productive,” which is “raising hopes for further diplomatic progress and reducing fears of prolonged supply disruptions in the region.” ING further commented that “despite the recent correction, oil prices remain more than 60% higher year-to-date,” emphasizing that the latest retreat is taking place within an environment of still-elevated prices.

Technical Picture: Uptrend Intact Above 100-Day SMA

On the daily chart, WTI U.S. Oil maintains a constructive short-term setup, with prices trading above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and above the lower Bollinger Band. This positioning indicates underlying demand following the recent retreat from higher levels. That said, the advance appears to be slowing, as the middle and upper Bollinger Bands are acting as overhead resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.9 is in neutral territory and signals waning upside momentum rather than clear bearish pressure.

On the upside, the first resistance area is located at the middle Bollinger Band near $93.45. Above that, a more substantial resistance zone emerges at the upper band around $101.05. On the downside, the immediate focus is on the current price region, with softer support seen at the lower Bollinger Band at $85.80 and further support at the 100-day SMA near $84.75. This latter area is likely to be defended by buyers if the market experiences a deeper pullback within the broader bullish structure.