Key Moments
- Societe Generale’s Latam strategy team reports the Mexican Peso is on track for its weakest monthly performance since August 2024, with losses nearing 5% against the US Dollar.
- USD/MXN has moved above 17.00, regained its 200-day moving average, and is approaching the bank’s revised year-end projection of 18.00, where price consolidation is anticipated.
- Technical levels highlighted include the March high near 18.16 as an initial barrier, followed by upside projections around 18.55 and 18.80.
Societe Generale Sees Peso Under Pressure
Societe Generale’s Latam strategy team indicates that the Mexican Peso (MXN) is experiencing a pronounced bout of weakness, heading toward what they describe as its worst month since August 2024. The currency’s slide has brought its losses close to 5% against the US Dollar, a move the bank associates with the impact of higher US yields on overall risk sentiment.
According to the strategy note, USD/MXN has already advanced beyond the 17.00 mark and has recovered its 200-day moving average. The pair is now trading near Societe Generale’s updated year-end target of 18.00, a level the bank characterizes as psychologically important and a potential area where the exchange rate could begin to consolidate.
Key Technical Levels in Focus
The strategy note underscores several technical reference points for USD/MXN as the current rally unfolds.
| Technical Level | Description |
|---|---|
| 17.40/17.35 | Zone around the 200-day moving average that has been reclaimed by USD/MXN |
| 18.00 | Revised year-end forecast and a key psychological level where consolidation is expected |
| 18.16 | “Peak of March” cited as a potential interim hurdle |
| 18.55 | Upside projection area beyond 18.16 |
| 18.80 | Further upside projection zone following 18.55 |
The bank’s commentary highlights that “USD/MXN recently crossed a multi-month descending trend line and reclaimed the 200-DMA (17.40/17.35).” This technical development is presented as a key factor in the current bullish tone for the pair.
The note further states that “USD/MXN is now heading towards the peak of March near 18.16, which could be an interim hurdle.” In addition, the strategy team points to subsequent upside markers, writing that “Beyond 18.16, the next potential objectives could be located at projections around 18.55 and 18.80.”
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