Key Moments
- AUD/NZD has stalled just below 1.2400 after retreating from last week’s 1.2491 peak, a 13-year high.
- Markets are factoring in a 25 basis-point hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia, which would lift the policy rate to 4.6%.
- Bearish divergence on the 4-hour RSI and a flat MACD signal waning upside momentum and risk of a deeper pullback.
Australian Dollar Pauses After Strong Multi-Week Advance
AUD/NZD is trading with little net change around 1.2390 on Monday, as investors await the upcoming decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The cross recently surged to 1.2491, its highest level in 13 years, capping a persistent climb that has been in place since mid-August. The latest price action, however, points to a loss of upward momentum as the pair hovers just under the 1.2400 handle following a mild pullback from last week’s peak.
Market pricing indicates that participants are anticipating a quarter-point increase in the RBA’s benchmark rate on Tuesday. Such a move would lift the cash rate to 4.6%, described as a 15-year high. Governor Michelle Bullock is navigating a difficult policy backdrop, with inflation risks still elevated while September’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data points to softening economic growth, creating a particularly complex environment for monetary authorities.
Diverging Central Bank Backdrops for AUD and NZD
In contrast to the RBA, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is operating with a policy rate at a comparatively lower 2.75%, giving it more scope to further tighten policy if needed. Even so, the RBNZ struck a dovish tone at its most recent meeting earlier this month. That messaging has helped cap further gains in the New Zealand Dollar, limiting its ability to appreciate meaningfully against the Aussie.
Technical Picture: Signals Point to Fading Bullish Momentum
From a technical standpoint, AUD/NZD is quoted at 1.2391, consolidating after a more than 4% rally between August and September. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (14) is showing a bearish divergence and has slipped below the key 50 threshold. Together with the lower high recorded on September 23, these signals suggest that buyers may be losing control.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the same 4-hour timeframe has flattened near the zero line, underscoring the absence of a strong directional bias in the current range.
On the downside, initial support is seen around the 1.2370 region, which corresponds to the lows posted on September 16 and 24. Below that, the next notable support band lies between 1.2270 and 1.2285, aligning with the lows from September 7 and 11, respectively.
On the topside, last week’s 1.2491 high and the nearby psychological 1.2500 level form the first key resistance zone. Should buyers regain momentum above these levels, the 1.272% Fibonacci extension of the recent advance, at 1.2615, is presented as a potential upside objective for bullish traders.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
The following table shows the intraday percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) versus major currencies. According to this snapshot, the Australian Dollar has been strongest against the Swiss Franc.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.13% | -0.28% | -0.27% | 0.18% | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.28% | |
| EUR | -0.13% | -0.25% | -0.37% | 0.05% | -0.08% | -0.16% | 0.16% | |
| GBP | 0.28% | 0.25% | -0.12% | 0.30% | 0.15% | 0.10% | 0.52% | |
| JPY | 0.27% | 0.37% | 0.12% | 0.40% | 0.24% | 0.18% | 0.64% | |
| CAD | -0.18% | -0.05% | -0.30% | -0.40% | -0.18% | -0.23% | 0.21% | |
| AUD | -0.02% | 0.08% | -0.15% | -0.24% | 0.18% | -0.07% | 0.37% | |
| NZD | 0.16% | 0.16% | -0.10% | -0.18% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.46% | |
| CHF | -0.28% | -0.16% | -0.52% | -0.64% | -0.21% | -0.37% | -0.46% |
The heat map should be read using the left column as the base currency and the top row as the quote currency. For instance, selecting the Australian Dollar on the left and moving horizontally to the US Dollar column will show the percentage change for AUD (base) against USD (quote).
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