Key Moments:
- WTI pulls back from the $95.80 area and trades just under $92.00, down 2.0% during the Asian session.
- Reports of potential US-Iran progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz weigh on prices, even as geopolitical risks stay elevated.
- WTI holds above key 4-hour technical supports, with MACD turning positive and multiple Fibonacci levels underpinning a still-bullish structure.
Price Action and Market Drivers
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil contract, extends the prior session’s late decline from the $95.80 region, softening further through the Asian trading hours on Friday. The move halts a two-day advance, with prices now hovering just below the $92.00 level, representing a 2.0% drop on the day.
According to media reports, negotiators from the United States and Iran are assessing a phased framework to de-escalate the conflict. The reported approach would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz in return for Washington easing its economic blockade on Iran. This prospect helps to alleviate immediate supply concerns and has emerged as a primary headwind for crude prices.
At the same time, a Houthi missile strike on Saudi Arabia continues to underscore elevated geopolitical risk, which could provide some support and limit the extent of the downside move in oil.
Technical Picture: Uptrend Structure Remains Intact
From a chart perspective, WTI maintains a constructive near-term bias. Prices are holding above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour timeframe, as well as above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September rally, reinforcing the view that the broader bullish trend remains in place.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, with its histogram edging higher, pointing to strengthening upside momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to a neutral reading of 47, signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Given this backdrop, additional weakness is expected to encounter firm buying interest around the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, located near $88.99. This zone is closely aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $88.59, creating a notable technical support cluster.
Should selling pressure deepen beyond that area, further demand is likely to emerge at subsequent Fibonacci retracement levels. These include the 50.0% retracement at $84.47, followed by progressively lower levels at $80.35, $74.48, and $67.01.
On the upside, initial resistance is identified at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, situated at $93.68. A decisive break above this barrier would clear the path for a continuation of the move toward the recent cycle highs.
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate resistance | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement | $93.68 |
| Near-term support | 200-period SMA (4-hour) | $88.99 |
| Support | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | $88.59 |
| Support | 50.0% Fibonacci retracement | $84.47 |
| Lower support | Fibonacci retracement | $80.35 |
| Lower support | Fibonacci retracement | $74.48 |
| Lower support | Fibonacci retracement | $67.01 |
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