Key Moments
- WTI drops about 2.0% during the Asian session, slipping below the $92.00 level and ending a two-day advance.
- Reports of potential US-Iran progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz weigh on prices, even as a Houthi missile attack on Saudi Arabia keeps geopolitical risk elevated.
- Technical signals still point to an upside bias, with WTI holding above the 200-period SMA and key Fibonacci retracement levels on the 4-hour chart.
WTI Retreats as Supply Fears Ease
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude oil contract, extends the prior session’s late decline from the $95.80 region and moves lower through the Asian trading hours on Friday. The commodity halts a two-day winning run and is recently trading just under $92.00, showing a loss of 2.0% on the day.
Median reports indicated that US and Iranian negotiators are considering a phased roadmap to de-escalate the conflict, which would see Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for Washington lifting its economic blockade on Iran. This development helps alleviate supply concerns and exerts downward pressure on crude prices.
At the same time, a Houthi missile strike on Saudi Arabia keeps geopolitical tensions high, providing a potential source of support that could limit the depth of the current pullback.
Technical Outlook: Uptrend Bias Remains
From a chart perspective, WTI maintains a positive short-term structure, trading above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour timeframe and above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-September advance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive with an increasing histogram, signaling strengthening bullish momentum, even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near a neutral reading of 47.
Given this backdrop, additional downside appears likely to encounter solid buying interest near the 200-period SMA around $88.99, which is closely aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $88.59. A more pronounced decline could attract further demand at the 50.0% retracement at $84.47, with subsequent Fibonacci levels positioned near $80.35, $74.48, and $67.01.
On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $93.68. A decisive move above this barrier would clear the path for a continuation higher toward the recent cycle highs.
Key WTI Technical Levels
| Level Type | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Support | $88.99 | 200-period SMA (4-hour chart) |
| Support | $88.59 | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (July-September rally) |
| Support | $84.47 | 50.0% Fibonacci retracement |
| Support | $80.35 | Lower Fibonacci retracement |
| Support | $74.48 | Lower Fibonacci retracement |
| Support | $67.01 | Lower Fibonacci retracement |
| Resistance | $93.68 | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, initial upside hurdle |
| Reference high | $95.80 | Recent pullback area |
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