WTI Crude Under Pressure as Geopolitical Supply Fears Recede

Key Moments

WTI Extends Decline Toward Two-Week Low

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark U.S. crude oil contract, continues to trade with a bearish tone for a fifth consecutive session on Wednesday. During the Asian session, prices hover in the mid-$88.00 range, marking a drop of more than 1% on the day and trading close to the more than two-week low reached on Tuesday. The current setup leaves the contract vulnerable to additional downside in the near term.

Middle East Developments Ease Supply Risk

Market sentiment is being influenced by signs that supply risks in the Middle East may be moderating. Saudi Arabia is working to bring an oil pipeline to the Red Sea back online, while expectations for a diplomatic path toward ending the US-Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are reducing fears of prolonged disruption.

According to reports, Iran has offered to reopen the strategically important waterway in exchange for a de-escalation of U.S. military activity. This prospect is reinforcing optimism around supply continuity and is exerting additional downward pressure on crude prices.

U.S. Rhetoric and Sanctions Keep Risk Premium Alive

At the same time, the geopolitical backdrop remains tense. U.S. President Donald Trump told the UNGA that he faces a critical choice on whether to reach an agreement with Iran or “annihilate” the Islamic Republic if the conflict remained unresolved. In parallel, tighter U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian aviation are scheduled to take effect on Wednesday.

These sanctions, which are designed to severely restrict Iran’s aviation sector, help maintain a geopolitical risk premium in the market and are acting as a counterweight to the otherwise bearish supply-related news, thereby limiting the extent of WTI’s losses.

Technical Picture: Key Fibonacci and Moving Average Levels

From a technical standpoint, WTI is edging closer to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at $87.87, while still trading comfortably above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at $84.97. This structure indicates that the short-term outlook is neutral to mildly constrained on the upside, with the broader upward trend configuration yet to be decisively challenged. However, daily momentum indicators are signaling that bullish strength is fading.

Momentum Indicators Turn More Cautious

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has moved further into negative territory, reinforcing signs that upside momentum is weakening. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below the neutral 50 threshold and now stands at 46.8, suggesting a loss of bullish conviction.

If WTI falls decisively below the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at $87.87, that break would open the way toward the next key support band formed by the 100-day SMA at $84.97 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $84.52. A more pronounced correction would expose the 78.6% Fibonacci level at $79.75 and potentially the broader cycle low near $73.67.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $91.23. Above that, a more robust resistance zone is seen at the 23.6% retracement near $95.37, with the cycle high area around $102.07 acting as a more distant ceiling for prices.