XRP and XLM Hold Key Support Levels Amid Mixed Signals

Key Moments

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) are extending a recovery on Thursday after bouncing from key technical support zones.
Derivatives and on-chain indicators for both tokens are mixed, pointing to cautious positioning and limited conviction in a sustained move.
XRP and XLM are trading just above clustered short-term supports but remain constrained by their respective 200-day EMAs.

Derivatives Metrics Reflect Cautious Positioning

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) continue to recover on Thursday, but derivatives data suggests market participants are far from unanimous about the next major move.

CoinGlass’ long-to-short ratio for Ripple stands at 1.06 on Thursday, close to its highest reading in over a month. A value above 1 signals that long positions outweigh shorts, indicating a bullish tilt as traders anticipate higher prices.

In contrast, Stellar’s long-to-short ratio reads 0.97 on Thursday. A ratio below 1 indicates that short positions are slightly dominant, pointing to a modestly bearish stance as some traders position for lower prices.

Funding rates also deliver a split message. XRP’s funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and is at -0.0040% on Thursday, meaning short positions are paying longs. This configuration is typically associated with a more bearish bias in the market for XRP.

For XLM, the picture is reversed. The funding rate switched to positive on Wednesday and stands at 0.0093% on Thursday, showing that long positions are paying shorts and implying a more constructive, bullish outlook for Stellar.

On-Chain Data Points to Slight Bearish Bias

CryptoQuant’s summary indicators underscore a cautious tone for both XRP and XLM. For XRP, spot and futures markets are signaling overheating conditions. At the same time, the futures arena shows sell-side dominance and strong participation from retail traders. Taken together, these elements highlight a cautious, bearish-leaning sentiment among Ripple participants.

For XLM, spot data indicates notable activity from large players, with sizable whale orders evident. However, its futures market also shows sell-side dominance, suggesting a negative skew in sentiment among Stellar traders despite that underlying spot interest.

XRP Technical Picture: Range-Bound Above Support

XRP is trading at $1.300 on Thursday, maintaining a neutral, range-bound profile as it fluctuates between clustered moving averages and higher trend resistance. The token is marginally above its 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are situated at $1.284 and $1.255, respectively. These EMAs point to underlying demand in the $1.250–$1.280 region, even as price remains contained by the 200-day EMA, located at $1.353.

Momentum has cooled. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased toward a neutral reading of 46, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is below zero. This alignment signals fading bullish pressure and supports a consolidation scenario as XRP oscillates around the $1.300 level rather than establishing a clear trend.

XRP: Key Levels to Watch

Metric / Level	Value	Implication
Current price (Thursday)	$1.300	Range-bound around short-term support
50-day EMA	$1.284	Part of near-term demand band
100-day EMA	$1.255	Reinforces support in $1.250–$1.280 area
200-day EMA	$1.353	Immediate overhead resistance
RSI	46	Neutral momentum
Next major support	Near $1.000	Key lower floor if local demand fails
Major resistance above 200-day EMA	Near $1.900	Distant horizontal barrier on upside

On the downside, immediate support sits just below the market at $1.300 and is underpinned by the 50-day EMA at $1.284 and the 100-day EMA at $1.255. Together, these form a broader demand zone that would need to be broken to expose the next significant support area near $1.000.

On the upside, the 200-day EMA at $1.353 marks the first major resistance. A daily close above this level would clear the way toward the distant horizontal barrier around $1.900. Failure to reclaim $1.353, however, would keep XRP locked within its current range and leave the $1.300 region vulnerable to a corrective pullback.

XLM Technical Picture: Holding Above a Support Cluster

Stellar’s XLM token is trading at $0.184 on Thursday and is holding above its 50-day and 100-day EMAs, both clustered near $0.180. This configuration lends a cautiously constructive bias, although the price remains capped by the 200-day EMA, which sits around $0.188.

The RSI near 52 points to neutral-to-slightly bullish momentum. However, the MACD is marginally negative, hinting that recent upside momentum is fading as XLM consolidates just underneath its longer-term trend barrier.

XLM: Support and Resistance Framework

Metric / Level	Value	Implication
Current price (Thursday)	$0.184	Above clustered short-term EMAs
50-day & 100-day EMAs	Near $0.180	Short-term support area
200-day EMA	Near $0.188	Immediate resistance
61.8% Fibonacci retracement	$0.200	Key resistance above 200-day EMA
50% Fibonacci retracement	$0.218	Next upside target if $0.200 breaks
Fibonacci cluster	$0.237–$0.260	Higher resistance band
Horizontal support	$0.177	Initial downside level
78.6% Fibonacci retracement	$0.173	Reinforced support zone
Next major support	Near $0.142	Deeper structural floor

On the upside, the first resistance lies at the 200-day EMA near $0.188, followed by a more substantial barrier at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest swing at $0.200. A daily close above these levels would open the door toward the 50% retracement at $0.218 and the higher Fibonacci resistance band between $0.237 and $0.260.

On the downside, initial support is seen at a horizontal level around $0.177. This area is backed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.173. A more pronounced decline from there would bring the next key structural floor near $0.142 into focus.