Key Moments
- XAG/USD fails to sustain gains and is rejected below the $64.00 area during the Asian session on Wednesday.
- Expectations of a 25 bps Fed hike, higher US yields, and geopolitical risks bolster the US Dollar and weigh on silver.
- Price remains below the 200-day EMA near $64.13, with key Fibonacci supports at $62.94 and $61.06 underpinning the downside-biased setup.
Fed Event Risk Keeps Silver Under Pressure
Silver (XAG/USD) is unable to extend the prior session’s modest advance, with buyers struggling to push the price through the psychological $64.00 threshold during Asian trading on Wednesday. Market participants are refraining from aggressive positioning as they await the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement, which is seen as the next major catalyst for directional follow-through.
Going into the central bank decision, market pricing reflects expectations for a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. At the same time, concerns about inflation linked to higher oil prices are helping to drive US bond yields higher. Those yield dynamics, combined with rising tensions in the Middle East, are supporting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar, which is holding close to a two-week high and limiting upside in the non-yielding silver market.
Technical Picture: Downside Bias Dominates Below 200-Day EMA
From a chart perspective, silver maintains a mildly negative short-term tone while it trades beneath the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, located around $64.13. This positioning signals that sellers currently retain control, even though the metal is still holding above important retracement supports from the July-August advance.
XAG/USD is trading above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of that move, near $62.94, and the 61.8% retracement around $61.06. These levels are acting as a nearby support band and indicate that buyers are still defending the broader up-leg despite the current corrective phase.
| Level / Indicator | Type | Approximate Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| $64.13 | 200-day EMA | $64.13 | Key resistance; a recovery above would ease bearish pressure |
| $64.82 | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | $64.82 | Next upside obstacle after the 200-day EMA |
| $67.15 | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement | $67.15 | Higher resistance if a stronger rebound develops |
| $62.94 | 50.0% Fibonacci retracement | $62.94 | Initial support on the downside |
| $61.06 | 61.8% Fibonacci retracement | $61.06 | Deeper support; break lower would strengthen bearish outlook |
Momentum indicators are aligned with the cautious, bearish skew. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, and the Relative Strength Index is hovering near 46. Together, these signals point to an environment where selling pressure is likely to dominate unless spot prices can reclaim the 200-day EMA. A break above that moving average would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $64.82, with the 23.6% retracement close to $67.15 representing a more distant resistance zone if a more pronounced recovery develops.
On the downside, the first notable support sits at the 50.0% retracement around $62.94. Below there, the 61.8% retracement at $61.06 provides a stronger buffer. A decisive move beneath this latter area would be expected to confirm and deepen the prevailing bearish bias for XAG/USD.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
