Soybean Futures Rise as EPA Exemptions Shift Biofuel Outlook

Key Moments

Futures, Cash Markets, and Product Moves

Soybean futures are firm early on Tuesday, with most front-month contracts trading 9 to 10 cents higher. This follows a stronger finish on Monday, when contracts settled from unchanged to 7 cents higher, with deferred months leading the move. The September contract was the exception, ending Monday down 1 cent.

Open interest expanded by 2,712 contracts, with the bulk of that increase concentrated in the January contract. In the cash market, the cmdtyView national average cash soybean price rose 1/4 cent to $12.53 1/2.

Soybean product markets were mixed. Soymeal futures slipped by a dime to $3.90 on the day, while soy oil futures gained between 1 and 16 points. In deliverable supplies, there were no delivery notices overnight for September soybeans and no deliveries for September soybean oil, while 52 delivery notices were posted for September soymeal.

EPA Small Refinery Exemptions and RINs Impact

On Monday afternoon, the Environmental Protection Agency announced that it would grant 18 small refinery exemptions for 2025, along with 11 partial exemptions, while denying 3 requests. The total exempt volume was 1.76 million RINs. According to the announcement, 100% of the difference between projected and actual exempt totals will be reallocated into the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs).

Export Sales and Crop Progress

Earlier Monday, USDA reported a private export sale of 159,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2026/27 marketing year.

In the latest Crop Progress report from NASS for the week ending 8/30, 95% of the U.S. soybean crop had set pods, and 13% of the crop was reported as dropping leaves. Condition ratings declined by 2 percentage points to 58% good/excellent. The Brugler500 index, which aggregates condition scores, dropped 4 points to 353.

Export Shipments Under Pressure

USDA’s FGIS reported soybean export inspections of 250,801 MT (9.22 mbu) for the week ending August 27. Weekly shipments were 41.7% below the prior week and 49% lower than the same week a year earlier.

Mexico was the largest weekly destination with 53,896 MT, followed by Algeria at 43,299 MT and Egypt at 42,394 MT. Cumulative marketing year exports for 2025/26 stood at 40.744 MMT (1.497 bbu), running 18.2% behind the same point last year.

Crush Outlook and Oil Stocks

July soybean crush data is scheduled for release this afternoon. Analyst expectations cited in the market range from 219 to 221.3 mbu of soybeans crushed, with an average estimate of 220.1 mbu. Soybean oil stocks are projected at 1.878 billion lbs.

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