Silver Steady Near Highs as Traders Await Key US Data

Key Moments

Fundamental Drivers

Silver prices are little changed, with XAG/USD hovering near $66.67 during the Asian session on Tuesday, as market participants position for a fresh round of US macroeconomic data. The white metal is consolidating while investors wait for the August ISM Manufacturing PMI and July JOLTS Job Openings figures, both scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT.

Consensus expectations point to a modest cooling in US manufacturing activity, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI forecast at 55.2 compared with 55.6 in July. On the labor side, new job openings are projected to edge down to 7.3 million from 7.359 million in June. The JOLTS data are seen as an important input for shaping expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate moves.

Market specialists also point to the upcoming August Nonfarm Payrolls report and Consumer Price Index readings as critical for the Fed’s policy outlook, with both releases expected to play a major role in determining how officials approach interest rates.

Fed Signaling After Jackson Hole

Commentary from Rabobank’s Elwin de Groot emphasizes that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium was aimed at shifting the policy narrative ahead of the September meeting. According to de Groot, “Warsh’s prepared remarks seemed designed to lift rate-hike expectations, rebalance the September debate towards the hawks and rebuild his inflation-fighting credibility after July’s ‘all talk, no action’ criticism.” Rabobank nevertheless warns that this approach “creates a difficult balancing act, as the White House may oppose a hike so close to November’s midterms.”

De Groot further notes that “Warsh delivered an important signal: the Fed is not relying on tighter financial conditions alone and remains willing to tighten further if underlying inflation stalls.” Within this framework, Rabobank assesses that “the next round of data – especially the 4 September employment report and 11 September CPI – could therefore prove crucial for the Committee’s swing voters,” potentially determining whether the current hawkish tone results in an actual policy adjustment.

Geopolitics, Oil, and Implications for Silver

On the geopolitical side, renewed conflict in the Middle East is pushing energy markets higher, with WTI crude rising toward $85.85 in Tuesday’s Asian trade, a level described as the highest in more than a week. Elevated oil prices are stoking concerns about a possible resurgence in global inflation expectations.

Rising energy costs can increase the likelihood that central banks adopt a more hawkish stance to rein in inflation pressures. Such an environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets, including Silver, as higher interest rate expectations tend to support yield-bearing instruments at the expense of precious metals.

Technical Picture for XAG/USD

On the daily chart, XAG/USD is trading near $66.59 and maintains a constructive short-term tone. The pair is holding above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is currently at $65.71 and is acting as an area of underlying demand.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55.05, reflecting a neutral-to-positive bias. This suggests steady rather than aggressive buying interest as prices consolidate above the short-term trend indicator.

On the downside, the initial technical floor is the 20-day EMA at $65.71. Below that, the August 9 low at $62.19 is identified as the next key support level. On the upside, a sustained break above the June 17 high at $71.56 is seen as necessary to unlock further gains in the white metal.