Key Moments
- Bitcoin advanced 23% over the past week, its strongest weekly gain since the post-election rally in November 2024, according to K33.
- Average daily spot trading volume in Bitcoin climbed 188% week-over-week to $4.7 billion, while Bitcoin ETPs saw net inflows of 31,740 BTC.
- A record short squeeze wiped out $1.37 billion in bearish BTC positions on August 19, contributing to a rapid move back above key moving averages.
Bitcoin Logs Best Weekly Performance Since November 2024
Bitcoin (BTC) has staged its strongest one-week rally since the November 2024 US presidential election, rising 23% over the past week as spot trading activity and institutional interest picked up notably, according to a Tuesday report from K33.
The move carried BTC from roughly $63,000 to above $80,000 by late Monday. K33 noted that, in contrast to the 2024 advance, the current upswing has been driven in large part by forced deleveraging and an exceptional short squeeze.
Spot Market Activity and ETP Inflows Accelerate
The rebound in prices coincided with a sharp revival in spot market activity. K33 reported that average daily Bitcoin spot volumes increased 188% on a week-over-week basis to $4.7 billion, the highest level since early June. This followed an extended consolidation phase characterized by falling volumes and subdued volatility.
| Metric | Latest Reading | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly BTC price change | +23% | Strongest since post-election rally in November 2024 |
| Avg daily BTC spot volume | $4.7 billion | Up 188% week-over-week; highest since early June |
| BTC ETP weekly net inflows | 31,740 BTC | Strongest since October 2025 |
| Total BTC held by ETPs | 1.47 million BTC | Still 121,743 BTC below prior peak |
| Largest daily BTC short liquidation | $1.37 billion | New record set on August 19 |
| BTC price at time of writing | $78,480 | Up 0.1% in the past 24 hours |
Bitcoin exchange-traded products also saw a meaningful turnaround. K33 stated that Bitcoin ETPs recorded their strongest weekly inflows since October 2025, with net subscriptions totaling 31,740 BTC. These inflows brought total BTC held by such vehicles to 1.47 million BTC.
Despite the improvement, K33 highlighted that ETP holdings are still 121,743 BTC below their prior high, after substantial outflows between mid-May and June.
Key Moving Averages Reclaimed in Just Four Sessions
The recent advance rapidly shifted the technical backdrop. BTC’s rebound lifted the price above its 200-week, 200-day, 100-day, and 50-day moving averages in only four trading days.
According to K33, Bitcoin had not previously recovered all four of these trend measures in such a short timeframe. The firm identified only three earlier periods – October 2015, April 2020 and October 2023 – when BTC reclaimed all four moving averages within 45 days. Each of those episodes coincided with the onset of a broader cyclical bull phase.
The report noted: “This suggests that momentum clearly favors the bulls. Furthermore, the extreme spike in daily RSI to 85.9 on August 21 led many to point to BTC as overbought,” the report stated.
RSI and Market Regime Point to Supportive Backdrop
K33 argued that historical performance following similar technical conditions has tended to be constructive. The firm observed that relative strength index readings in the 85 to 90 range have historically produced the highest 10-day, 30-day, 180-day and 365-day forward win rates among the ranges it examined.
The report added that K33’s broader market regime framework – which blends technical signals, derivatives data, ETF flows and macro factors – currently resembles earlier bear-market breakout phases seen in 2019 and 2023. While stressing that analogs do not guarantee a repeat of past outcomes, K33 assessed that current conditions continue to favor an ongoing recovery.
Bitcoin Still Trails Prior Peak as Correlations Shift
Despite the sharp gains, Bitcoin remains 36% below its all-time high, leaving it further from prior peak levels than several other major assets, according to K33.
The report also pointed to shifting cross-asset relationships. Gold has moved higher as well, with its correlation to Bitcoin rising to the strongest level since October 2020. Over the same period, gold’s correlation with the Nasdaq has fallen to its lowest level in a year.
Record Short Squeeze Underscores Deleveraging
A pronounced unwinding of short positions amplified the latest surge in prices. K33 reported that Bitcoin experienced both its largest and third-largest daily short-liquidation events during the past week.
On August 19 alone, $1.37 billion in short Bitcoin positions were liquidated, exceeding the previous record of $757 million set in July 2021. The firm wrote that major short squeezes have historically tended to emerge near bottoming phases for Bitcoin, when bearish positioning becomes crowded and selling pressure is largely exhausted.
K33 added: “Historically, flips in long-tenor skew have been reliable reversal signals in both directions, identifying attractive periods to buy as well as to sell,” K33 added.
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