Wheat Futures Rebound, Erasing Part of Friday’s Losses

Key Moments

Market Overview

Wheat futures are posting renewed strength on Monday morning, with contracts trading between 7 and 13 cents higher. This rebound follows a weaker finish on Friday, when wheat prices closed lower across all three major U.S. exchanges.

On Friday, Chicago soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures were fractionally to 1 1/4 cents lower, though the September contract still finished the week 6 3/4 cents higher. Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) futures declined between 1 3/4 and 6 cents for the session, with the September contract retaining a 2 cent weekly gain. Minneapolis spring wheat futures ended Friday 2 1/2 to 4 cents lower, but the September contract advanced 20 cents over the week.

Positioning and Fund Activity

The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders data for the week of 8/18 showed shifts in speculative positioning. Managed money accounts reduced their net short exposure in Chicago Board of Trade wheat by 4,916 contracts, bringing the net short to 26,485 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, managed money increased its net long position by 7,173 contracts, taking that net long to 34,835 contracts.

Export Sales and Demand Indicators

The weekly USDA Export Sales report has recorded 2026/27 wheat sales at 7.936 MMT. This volume is 31% below the comparable period last year. Current sales represent 38% of USDA’s export projection, lagging last year’s 49% pace and the 45% average.

Global Supply Update

On the international front, Sovecon now estimates the Russian wheat crop for 2026 at 88.2 MMT, which is 0.3 MMT lower than its previous forecast.

Futures Performance Snapshot

Friday’s settlement levels and current Monday morning moves for key wheat contracts are shown below.