ETH Holds Narrow Range as On-Chain Metrics Signal Caution

Key Moments

On-chain Indicators Point to Weak Conviction

Ethereum (ETH) continued to trade in a tight $1,800-$2,000 band on Thursday, with the spot price at $1,880 as key on-chain indicators remained subdued.

ETH Exchange Netflow, which tracks the balance between coins moving onto and off exchanges, has shifted to a mildly positive 14-day moving average, signaling a slight edge for selling activity. The Exchange Reserves metric, which measures how much ETH is held on exchanges, has been broadly unchanged over the past week, edging up to 15.13 million ETH over the last two sessions. Historically, rising reserves have been linked to increased selling pressure.

U.S. market sentiment, as measured by the Coinbase Premium Index, has also stayed weak. The index, which reflects the pricing gap between Coinbase and other exchanges, remained in negative territory and slipped further to -0.081 in the last two days, even as U.S. equities improved.

Institutional Flows Diverge From Crypto-native Activity

In contrast to the cautious picture from crypto exchange metrics, U.S. spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted net inflows of $244.9 million last week, based on SoSoValue data. So far this week, those products have recorded only modest net outflows of $8.9 million.

This split highlights a divergence in behavior between traditional and institutional investors, who appear more constructive, and crypto-native participants, who remain guarded.

Retail Distribution vs Whale Accumulation

The hesitancy is most evident among smaller on-chain holders. Over the past week, addresses holding between 100-1K ETH and 1K-10K ETH collectively sold 160K ETH, extending a distribution pattern that has persisted since late April.

At the same time, larger holders have taken the other side. Addresses with balances of 10K-100K ETH accumulated roughly 100K ETH over the same period, suggesting increasing whale exposure as smaller investors continue to distribute.

Analyst Flags Potential Bottom via NUPL Signal

CryptoQuant contributor analyst MorenoDV pointed to a possible bottoming setup in Ethereum using the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for ETH held on Binance, which has moved close to the -0.35 area.

“Historically, [these] levels coincided with the lows of late 2019 and March 2020, both 2022 bottoming phases, the 2025 correction and the latest drawdown,” wrote MorenoDV. “Different catalysts produced the same underlying condition: losses had become severe enough to suggest that selling pressure was already mature.”

The analyst argued that once loss-sensitive holders capitulate, the remaining supply may be less inclined to sell at lower prices, so even limited demand can have more impact due to reduced marginal supply from distributors.

Technical Setup: ETH Stays Above Key EMAs

According to Coinglass data, Ethereum has seen $30 million in liquidations over the past 24 hours, dominated by $21.1 million in long liquidations.

Despite that flush, ETH retains a constructive short-term bullish tone on the daily chart, trading above the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), currently at $1,884 and $1,865, respectively. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 and a Stochastic reading around 55 both suggest stable rather than forceful upside momentum.

Key Technical Levels

On the upside, the 100-day EMA at $1,922 is the first resistance to watch, followed by a horizontal barrier near $1,961. Above that, additional levels at $2,172 and $2,431 form a wider supply zone.

On the downside, the 20-day and 50-day EMAs serve as initial support. Below them, a horizontal area around $1,809 offers stronger demand. A clear break under that zone would open the way to deeper supports at $1,701 and $1,507.