Key Moments
- Wheat futures across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis were trading higher early Wednesday after previous session losses.
- Ukrainian drone attacks reportedly halted operations at Russia’s Novorossiysk port, a key export hub on the Black Sea.
- Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected a slight downgrade to U.S. wheat production and ending stocks in the latest NASS Crop Production report.
Market Action Across Major Wheat Contracts
The wheat complex was showing early Wednesday strength across all three major U.S. exchanges, following a prior session defined by notable declines and rising open interest.
In Chicago, SRW wheat futures had previously fallen by 7 to 11 cents across the active contracts. Open interest increased by 15,741 contracts during that move, indicating an influx of new selling. Kansas City HRW futures also weakened, finishing the session 8 to 15 1/4 cents lower across the board. At the same time, Minneapolis spring wheat futures slipped 10 to 12 3/4 cents for most listed contracts.
Black Sea Supply Concerns
Overnight, Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russia’s Novorossiysk port, bringing operations at the country’s largest port to a halt. This fresh disruption in the Black Sea region added a layer of supply risk to global wheat trade flows and coincided with the early-session recovery in futures prices.
Focus on NASS Crop Production and U.S. Balance Sheet
The market was also awaiting updated U.S. wheat production figures from NASS, scheduled for release on Wednesday in the monthly Crop Production report. According to analyst estimates compiled by Reuters, total U.S. wheat production was expected to come in at 1.525 billion bushels, which would represent an 11 million bushel reduction from July if confirmed.
Within that total, winter wheat output was projected at 981 million bushels, a decrease of 9 million bushels, while spring wheat production was anticipated at 468 million bushels, down 7 million bushels. U.S. wheat ending stocks were seen at 715 million bushels, implying a 7 million bushel decline compared with the previous month.
EU Export Pace Slows
On the export front, EU soft wheat shipments from July 1 through August 9 totaled 1.01 million metric tons, according to European Commission data. That volume lagged well behind the 2.36 million metric tons recorded over the same period a year earlier.
Wheat Futures Snapshot
Despite finishing the prior session lower, key wheat contracts were trading higher at the time referenced, with gains partially offsetting earlier declines.
| Contract | Exchange | Prior Close | Change at Close | Current Intraday Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 Wheat | CBOT | $6.30 1/4 | down 10 1/4 cents | currently up 15 cents |
| Dec 26 Wheat | CBOT | $6.48 1/4 | down 11 cents | currently up 14 3/4 cents |
| Sep 26 Wheat | KCBT | $6.99 1/4 | down 14 1/4 cents | currently up 21 1/2 cents |
| Dec 26 Wheat | KCBT | $7.16 | down 15 1/4 cents | currently up 21 1/4 cents |
| Sep 26 Wheat | MIAX | $6.59 1/4 | down 10 3/4 cents | currently up 11 3/4 cents |
| Dec 26 Wheat | MIAX | $6.85 1/2 | down 10 1/2 cents | currently up 12 1/2 cents |
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