Cardano Buyers Return as Whales Accumulate

Key Moments

Whale Activity Supports Ongoing ADA Rebound

Cardano (ADA) is trading above $0.196 at the start of the week on Monday, extending a strong advance that delivered double-digit gains over the last two weeks. The latest uptrend is underpinned by continued accumulation from large holders and a modest shift toward optimism in derivatives positioning, pointing to the potential for a further leg higher.

According to Santiment’s Supply Distribution data, large-wallet investors are still increasing exposure to ADA. The figures show that addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA tokens, as well as those with 10 million to 100 million ADA tokens, have added a total of 110 million ADA since Friday. This buy-the-dip pattern highlights persistent longer-term interest from large holders and provides support for the current advance.

Cardano supply distribution metric chart. Source: Santiment

Derivatives Positioning Shows Mild Bullish Bias

Conditions in ADA derivatives markets are also improving. CoinGlass data on the OI-Weighted Funding Rate for Cardano turned positive on Saturday and is at 0.0038% on Monday. A positive funding rate means long positions are paying short positions, reflecting a tilt toward bullish expectations in perpetual futures markets.

Cardano funding rates chart. Source: Coinglass

The long-to-short ratio for Cardano is approaching the neutral 1 threshold, standing at 0.99 on Monday. This movement indicates that the dominance of bearish positioning is easing. A reading above 1 would imply that long positions exceed short positions, confirming a more clearly bullish positioning profile.

Cardano long-to-short ratio chart. Source: Coinglass

CryptoQuant’s summary view points to a similar setup. Its data shows sizeable whale orders in Cardano futures, while other indicators are described as neutral. This combination suggests a mild upside bias without signs of overheating.

Cardano summary chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Technical Picture: Key Support Intact, Resistance Levels in Focus

On the spot market, ADA is changing hands near $0.196 on Monday and maintains a slightly positive near-term tone. The token is trading above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.180, although it remains capped below the 100-day EMA at $0.196 and the 200-day EMA at $0.254.

The recovery has been aided by a reclaim of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.195 and a break above the descending trendline trigger at $0.176. These developments point to a building recovery phase. Momentum indicators are aligned with this view: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding around 64, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, both signaling strengthening bullish momentum despite broader supply overhead.

Upside and Downside Levels to Watch

On the upside, the first resistance zone sits at the 100-day EMA around $0.196. Above that, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $0.213 and the 61.8% retracement near $0.231 are the next notable hurdles. A horizontal resistance band at $0.236 is also in play. A decisive break above this cluster of resistance levels would be required to alleviate the broader bearish backdrop and open the way to the higher horizontal barrier at $0.2991.

On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at approximately $0.195 serves as initial support. Below this, the 50-day EMA at $0.180 and the previously broken trendline area near $0.176 provide additional support layers. If selling pressure were to intensify, further downside levels include the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.173 and a horizontal support zone at $0.150.