Key Moments
- Wheat futures are recovering early Friday, trading 4 to 7 cents higher after losses across all three major markets on Thursday.
- Weekly U.S. wheat export sales reached 296,427 MT, a 4-week high but still 59.82% below the same week a year earlier.
- Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect NASS to trim total U.S. wheat production to 1.525 bbu in the upcoming Crop Production report.
Early Friday Strength Follows Thursday Selloff
Wheat futures are posting modest gains in early Friday trade, adding between 4 and 7 cents after a broadly weaker session the previous day across Chicago, Kansas City, and Minneapolis contracts.
On Thursday, Chicago SRW wheat futures finished lower, declining from 1 1/2 to 11 cents throughout the curve, with nearby contracts seeing the sharpest weakness. Kansas City HRW contracts led the downside move among winter wheat, with front-month futures falling 10 to 13 3/4 cents and deferred contracts slipping 3 to 5 1/2 cents. MPLS spring wheat futures also ended in the red, closing with losses ranging from 12 1/2 to 16 1/4 cents.
Export Sales Hit 4-Week High but Lag Last Year
Weekly Export Sales data released Thursday morning showed total wheat bookings of 296,427 MT for the week of July 30. While that total marked a 4-week high, it remained 59.82% below export sales recorded in the same week a year earlier.
The Philippines was the top destination with purchases of 87,800 MT. Mexico followed with 68,700 MT, and Vietnam booked 62,000 MT during the reporting period.
U.S. Production Outlook Ahead of NASS Report
Market participants are looking ahead to the next monthly Crop Production report from NASS, scheduled for release on Wednesday. According to analyst expectations compiled by Reuters, total U.S. wheat production is projected at 1.525 bbu, which would represent an 11 mbu reduction from July if confirmed.
Within that total, winter wheat output is anticipated at 981 mbu, down 9 mbu from the prior estimate. Spring wheat production is expected to ease by 7 mbu to 468 mbu.
French Soft Wheat Estimate Slightly Lower
France’s farm ministry estimated the country’s soft wheat crop at 31.9 MMT, a marginal decline of 0.1 MMT compared with the previous month’s assessment.
Futures Prices: Thursday Close and Early Friday Moves
The table below summarizes Thursday’s settlement levels for key wheat futures contracts and their current early Friday price changes indicated as “currently up”:
| Contract | Thursday Close | Thursday Change | Current Early Friday Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 CBOT Wheat | $6.31 1/4 | down 11 cents | currently up 5 1/2 cents |
| Dec 26 CBOT Wheat | $6.50 1/2 | down 10 3/4 cents | currently up 5 1/4 cents |
| Sep 26 KCBT Wheat | $6.99 3/4 | down 13 3/4 cents | currently up 8 cents |
| Dec 26 KCBT Wheat | $7.17 1/2 | down 13 1/2 cents | currently up 7 3/4 cents |
| Sep 26 MIAX Wheat | $6.71 | down 12 1/2 cents | currently up 4 cents |
| Dec 26 MIAX Wheat | $6.94 1/4 | down 13 3/4 cents | currently up 4 1/2 cents |
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