Key Moments
- ICE Brent settled 1.9% lower, moving back below $90/bbl despite ongoing US-Iran tensions.
- Approximately 13m b/d of oil is reported to be leaving the Persian Gulf, split between the Strait of Hormuz and pipeline routes.
- Russia extended its diesel export ban until 1 September, keeping middle distillate markets tight and reinforcing supply risks.
Brent Retreats Despite Persistent Geopolitical Tensions
Oil prices weakened, with ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey noting that ICE Brent futures fell 1.9% on the day, pushing the benchmark back below $90/bbl. This pullback occurred even though tensions between the US and Iran showed little sign of easing.
Persian Gulf Export Routes Show Improving Flows
The analysts highlighted early indications of stronger crude flows out of the Persian Gulf. Ship-tracking data indicated a modest rise in tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz.
According to comments cited from the US energy secretary, around 13m b/d of oil is currently exiting the Persian Gulf. Roughly half of that volume is said to be transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while the remainder is moving through pipelines that bypass the strait.
| Route from Persian Gulf | Approximate Share of 13m b/d |
|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz | About half of flows |
| Pipelines bypassing the strait | About half of flows |
US SPR Policy Limits Additional Supply Relief
The report emphasized that the US appears to have closed the door on further releases from its strategic petroleum reserves once the currently ongoing drawdown of 172m barrels is completed. The SPR is described as holding slightly less than 308m barrels, with mounting concerns about how much additional crude could be withdrawn without breaching operational minimum thresholds. This constraint reduces the scope for using the SPR to counter oil market tightness.
Middle Distillate Markets Remain Constrained
Patterson and Manthey underscored that middle distillate supplies continue to look tight. Russia has extended its ban on diesel exports until 1 September. The analysts noted that Russia is the second-largest diesel exporter, shipping more than 700k b/d in 2025. This policy is expected to maintain pressure on global diesel availability and contribute to European supply risks, including those linked to Red Sea trade routes.
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