Rupiah Slides as Surprise Central Bank Exit Jolts Markets

Key Moments

USD/IDR trades near 18,130 as the Rupiah falls for a second straight session.
Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo’s resignation raises concerns about policy stability.
Meanwhile, lower oil prices and calmer Middle East tensions ease inflation worries before the July Fed decision.

Rupiah Under Pressure After Bank Indonesia Shakeup

USD/IDR extends its gains for a second session, trading near 18,130 during early European hours on Tuesday. The pair rises as the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) weakens after Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo resigned on Monday.

The leadership change has pressured Indonesian assets. As a result, investors are reassessing the outlook for monetary policy. Some traders worry that the move could affect central bank independence and future decisions.

However, rating agency S&P said the resignation does not change Indonesia’s credit rating. The agency noted that the transition could create short-term uncertainty around monetary policy.

Dollar Holds Firm Ahead of Fed Decision

The US Dollar (USD) remains supported as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve policy decision on Wednesday. Meanwhile, investors are watching closely for clues about the central bank’s next move.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 38% chance of a July rate hike. They also price an 81.4% probability of at least a 25-basis-point increase by September.

In addition, Citadel Securities expects the Fed to raise rates to reinforce its inflation-fighting approach. The view follows Chairman Kevin Warsh’s continued focus on restoring price stability.

Event/Indicator	Market Expectation
Probability of July Fed rate hike	Nearly 38%
Probability of at least 25 bps hike by September	81.4%
USD/IDR level (early European hours, Tuesday)	Around 18,130

Geopolitics, Oil and Inflation Sentiment

Middle East developments have reduced some global inflation concerns. At the same time, lower crude prices and easing tensions have improved wider market sentiment.

US President Donald Trump said Washington was holding “good talks” with Iran to resolve the conflict. The United States also paused its 13-night strike campaign over the weekend.

However, Iran’s foreign ministry said there are no direct talks with the US. It stated that current discussions involve Oman and focus on the Strait. Even so, hopes for diplomacy have helped push oil prices lower.

Understanding Risk Sentiment in Markets

In financial markets, “risk-on” and “risk-off” describe investor confidence. During risk-on periods, traders feel more comfortable buying assets with higher potential returns.

By contrast, risk-off periods encourage investors to seek safer assets. Therefore, demand often rises for government bonds, gold, and defensive currencies.

Assets and Currencies That Reflect Risk Appetite

During risk-on phases, equities often gain as growth expectations improve. Most commodities, excluding gold, can also benefit from stronger demand.

Furthermore, currencies linked to commodity exports usually strengthen during these periods. These include the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar.

During risk-off conditions, government bonds, gold, and safe-haven currencies often perform better. The Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and US Dollar usually attract demand during uncertain periods.

Sentiment Regime	Typical Beneficiaries
Risk-on	Stocks, most commodities (excluding Gold), commodity-linked currencies, Cryptocurrencies
Risk-off	Major government Bonds, Gold, JPY, CHF, USD

Risk-On vs Risk-Off FX Dynamics

Risk-on markets usually support the Australian Dollar (AUD), Canadian Dollar (CAD), and New Zealand Dollar (NZD). Smaller FX markets, such as the Ruble (RUB) and South African Rand (ZAR), can also benefit.

These currencies often track commodity demand because their economies rely on exports. Therefore, stronger global growth expectations can provide support.

Conversely, risk-off periods tend to favour the US Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Swiss Franc (CHF). The Dollar benefits from its reserve currency role and demand for US government debt.

The Yen gains from demand for Japanese government bonds. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc attracts investors because of Switzerland’s reputation for financial stability and capital protection.