NZ Dollar Falls as Cautious Trade Supports US Dollar

Key Moments

NZD Under Pressure Despite Early Asian Session Gains

The NZD/USD pair moved lower for a second straight session after failing to extend a modest advance during Asian trading on Tuesday, when it briefly touched the 0.5785 area. The cross subsequently eased back and was last seen fluctuating around the 0.5770-0.5765 band, hovering just above last week’s swing low. The move came as the U.S. Dollar maintained a constructive tone, supported by ongoing geopolitical concerns that continued to dampen risk appetite.

Geopolitical Risks Support the U.S. Dollar

The U.S. Dollar benefited from safe-haven flows after a series of developments involving the United States and Iran. The U.S. halted its bombing campaign against Iran after approximately two weeks of strikes. At the same time, comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday, stating that the U.S. was having good talks with Iran and that there was a chance of a resolution, initially encouraged hopes that the two countries could return to the negotiating table.

However, that improved sentiment faded quickly after reports of drone attacks from Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq. Additionally, President Trump cautioned that U.S. strikes would resume if negotiations failed to produce results. These factors helped the U.S. Dollar hold on to its recent gains near its monthly peak, keeping pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Market Positioning Ahead of the FOMC Meeting

Despite the U.S. Dollar’s underlying strength, market participants appeared reluctant to take on large positions as they awaited the outcome of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee policy meeting, which begins later today. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to reveal its rate decision on Wednesday and is widely anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged.

As a result, attention will center on the accompanying policy statement and the subsequent press conference. Investors will scrutinize the Fed’s communication for indications on the future path of monetary policy, which will likely influence the Greenback’s direction and, in turn, the trajectory of NZD/USD.

RBNZ’s Hawkish Bias Lends Support to the Kiwi

In the background, expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will implement another rate increase in September continued to offer some underlying support to the New Zealand Dollar. Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman pointed to the domestic macro backdrop as a key factor for further tightening, arguing that “above target inflation and a more favorable domestic growth outlook argue for additional RBNZ rate hikes which is NZD supportive.”

They highlighted that at its 8 July meeting, the RBNZ raised the Official Cash Rate by 25bp to 2.50% and indicated that “further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings.” Reflecting this stance, Brown Brothers Harriman noted that “the swaps curve price in 60bps hikes by year-end and a total of 100bps of tightening over the next twelve months to 3.50% – near the top of the RBNZ estimated neutral range (2.20%-4.10%).”