Gold Holds Weak Bias as Markets Await Fed Outlook

Key Moments

Gold Under Pressure Ahead of FOMC Decision

Gold (XAU/USD) edged higher off its intraday low but continued to trade with a negative bias around the $4,050 level heading into the European session on Tuesday. Earlier in the Asian session, the metal slipped below $4,050, closing the bullish gap left at the start of the week.

The US Dollar, holding near its monthly high, lent some support to bullion, but market participants remained cautious before the start of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting. Investors looked to the forthcoming Fed communication for clarity on the future policy path, which is expected to be a key driver for USD demand and, in turn, for the non-yielding metal.

Geopolitics, Oil, and Fed Expectations Shape Market Mood

In the run-up to the central bank meeting, traders scaled back expectations for additional Fed rate hikes. This reassessment followed renewed optimism around potential US-Iran diplomacy aimed at resolving a five-month-old conflict, which contributed to an overnight drop in oil prices and eased inflation concerns.

The United States paused its bombing campaign against Iran after roughly two weeks of strikes. At the same time, US President Donald Trump commented on the diplomatic track, stating on Monday that the US was having good discussions with Iran and that there was a chance of reaching a resolution. These developments boosted hopes of a return to negotiations and a possible normalization of energy flows from the Middle East.

However, Trump also cautioned that US strikes would resume if the talks did not yield results. In parallel, reports of drone attacks in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq on Monday tempered optimism. Ongoing worries about potential disruptions to global energy supplies continued to underpin oil prices and support safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Focus intensified on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia and targeted Saudi oil infrastructure along the Red Sea coast. In addition, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained.

The overall backdrop appeared to favor USD strength, reinforcing the case for additional downside in Gold. Even so, many traders were reluctant to take strong directional positions before the outcome of the closely watched FOMC meeting on Wednesday. As a result, a decisive break and sustained move below the $4,000 psychological level was seen as necessary before committing to fresh bearish positions in XAU/USD.

Technical Picture: Bearish Structure Intact

From a technical standpoint, the recent move below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) set the stage for a bearish environment. Price action since June 19 has remained largely range-bound, which can still be interpreted as consolidation within a broader downtrend.

Momentum indicators were sending mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered just under the 50 threshold, near 45, pointing to subdued buying interest. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator was turning higher while remaining in positive territory. Together, these readings suggest that any short-term rebounds may be corrective in nature as long as Gold trades below its long-term moving average.

The metal appeared vulnerable to further weakness unless buyers stepped in decisively near the recent lows around the $4,000 psychological area. On the upside, the upper boundary of the current trading range near $4,200 was identified as a key resistance level. A daily close above that zone would be required to alleviate the broader bearish bias and allow for a more durable move toward the 200-day SMA, currently located at $4,493.65.