Key Moments
- Winter wheat futures extended recent strength with modest early Thursday gains, while spring wheat eased lower.
- Chicago SRW and KC HRW futures reached their highest front-month levels since 2024 and August 2023, respectively, with open interest rising in both contracts.
- Russia limited nighttime exports from Novorossiysk following drone strikes, while U.S. spring wheat yield checks in North Dakota came in above last year.
Winter Wheat Extends Rally as Spring Wheat Softens
Wheat futures exhibited mixed price action early on Thursday, with the winter wheat contracts holding modest gains while spring wheat futures slipped back. This followed another session on Wednesday in which the wheat complex once again led a broader grain market advance, driven primarily by strength in the Kansas City market and new highs across key contracts.
Chicago and KC Contracts Push to Multi-Month Highs
Chicago soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures on the front month continuation chart climbed to their highest levels since 2024 on Wednesday, with front-month contracts closing between 21 and 27 ¾ cents higher. Open interest in Chicago wheat rose by 6,053 contracts, signaling increased participation as prices advanced.
Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) wheat futures led the overall rally, lifting the spot market to its highest level since August 2023. KC contracts ended the session 21 to 30 ½ cents higher, with open interest up by 2,054 contracts. Minneapolis spring wheat futures also participated in Wednesday’s strength, finishing 16 to 24 3/4 cents higher.
Export Sales Expectations and Weather Outlook
Traders are awaiting weekly Export Sales data from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service on Thursday. According to a survey by Reuters, expectations for net 2026/27 wheat sales range from 200,000 to 550,000 metric tons.
In the key spring wheat areas, weather forecasts indicate limited moisture. Minnesota, the Dakotas, and the Pacific Northwest are projected to receive little to no precipitation over the next week, based on the NOAA 7-day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast.
On day 2 of the annual spring wheat tour, yield estimates for north-central and northwest North Dakota came in at 48.1 bushels per acre, which is 1.9 bushels per acre above last year’s level.
Geopolitical Developments Impacting Black Sea Flows
Russia has halted nighttime shipments from Novorossiysk, a major wheat export hub, due to recent drone attacks by Ukraine. The pause applies to movements during the night-time hours and adds another element of uncertainty to Black Sea export flows.
Wheat Futures Price Snapshot
Early Thursday trade followed through on some of Wednesday’s sharp gains in winter wheat, while spring wheat edged lower. Closing levels from Wednesday and the current indicated moves are shown below.
| Contract | Exchange | Close | Change (Close) | Current Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26 Wheat | CBOT | $7.05 3/4 | up 27 3/4 cents | currently up 3 1/2 cents |
| Dec 26 Wheat | CBOT | $7.22 3/4 | up 26 3/4 cents | currently up 3 1/4 cents |
| Sep 26 Wheat | KCBT | $7.63 1/2 | up 30 1/2 cents | currently up 1 1/4 cents |
| Dec 26 Wheat | KCBT | $7.79 | up 29 1/2 cents | currently up 1 1/4 cents |
| Sep 26 Wheat | MIAX | $7.29 | up 24 3/4 cents | currently down 1 1/2 cents |
| Dec 26 Wheat | MIAX | $7.53 1/2 | up 24 1/4 cents | currently down 1 1/4 cents |
Disclosure
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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