Corn Futures Rise on Ethanol and Export Optimism

Key Moments

Corn futures added another 2 to 3 cents early Thursday after climbing 8 to 9 1/2 cents into Wednesday’s close.
EIA reported weekly ethanol production at 1.094 million bpd, up 54,000 bpd, with inventories inching up to 24.481 million barrels.
Analysts expected weekly old- and new-crop U.S. corn export sales each in a 400,000 to 800,000 MT range.

Futures Extend Recent Upswing

Corn futures continued to push higher early Thursday, with contracts trading another 2 to 3 cents above Wednesday’s settlement. The market had already advanced 8 to 9 1/2 cents by the close on Wednesday, finishing within 2 cents of session highs on most contracts. Deferred contracts ended that session from fractional gains to 4 1/2 cents higher.

Open interest increased by 6,945 contracts on Wednesday, indicating fresh buying. Additional strength in wheat contributed to the bullish tone in corn. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price moved higher by 10 1/2 cents to $4.31 1/2.

Ethanol Production and Stocks

According to the EIA’s weekly Petroleum Status Report, ethanol output recovered by 54,000 barrels per day in the week of 7/17 following a prior decline, reaching 1.094 million barrels per day. Ethanol inventories edged up by 90,000 barrels during the same period, bringing total stocks to 24.481 million barrels.

Exports of ethanol rose by 77,000 barrels per day to 158,000 barrels per day, while refiner inputs of ethanol increased by 32,000 barrels per day to 938,000 barrels per day.

U.S. Export Sales Expectations

Export Sales data were scheduled for release in the morning, with market participants anticipating old-crop corn bookings in a range of 400,000 to 800,000 metric tons for the week of July 16. New-crop sales projections were also in a 400,000 to 800,000 metric ton band, based on a Reuters survey of analysts.

Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions

The 7-day QPF from NOAA indicated that parts of Kansas, Missouri, and Ohio could receive 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the coming week. In contrast, the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana were expected to see lighter precipitation of less than 0.5 inches, keeping those areas on the drier side.

Brazilian Export Projections

Brazil’s ANEC projected the country’s July corn exports at 3.7 million metric tons, up from last week’s outlook of 3.44 million metric tons.

Corn Market Snapshot

Contract / Cash	Last Close	Change at Close	Current Move (Thursday morning)
Sep 26 Corn	$4.62	up 9 1/4 cents	currently up 2 3/4 cents
Nearby Cash	$4.31 1/2	up 10 1/2 cents	–
Dec 26 Corn	$4.84 3/4	up 9 1/2 cents	currently up 3 1/4 cents
Mar 27 Corn	$5.00 1/4	up 9 1/4 cents	currently up 3 cents
New Crop Cash	$4.35 3/8	up 10 3/4 cents	–

Disclosure

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.