Key Moments
- Global primary aluminum production declined 2.9% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year in June to 5.98mt, while first-half output stayed broadly stable at 36.4mt.
- China’s June production fell 3.2% month-on-month to 3.7mt, but year-to-date volumes remained 2.2% higher year-on-year at 22.3mt.
- Gulf output dropped to 332kt, down 34.5% year-on-year, as disruptions linked to the Iran conflict weighed on regional supply.
ING Flags Softer Global Aluminum Supply
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that the global primary aluminum supply backdrop has weakened, with aggregate production retreating in June despite overall stability in the first half of the year. According to the latest figures, multiple key producing regions experienced output declines, pointing to a more constrained supply environment.
Global Production Contracts in June
The analysts cite fresh numbers from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), noting that
“the latest data from the International Aluminium Institute (IAI) showed global primary aluminium production fell 2.9% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year to 5.98mt in June, although first-half output remained broadly stable at 36.4mt.”
This combination of a monthly and annual decline in June, against an essentially flat first-half performance, suggests that the weakness is relatively recent in the data series.
China Sees Monthly Dip but Higher Year-to-Date Output
China, the largest producer, also registered a setback in June, although its cumulative performance for the year continued to improve versus the previous year. As highlighted in the report,
“China’s aluminium production declined 3.2% month-on-month to 3.7mt in June, but year-to-date output was still 2.2% higher year-on-year at 22.3mt.”
This indicates that, despite the latest monthly pullback, China’s aluminum sector has been running ahead of last year’s levels over the first half.
Broad-Based Regional Weakness Beyond China
Outside China, the production picture softened across several major producing hubs. The ING commentary notes that
“Production, meanwhile, weakened across most other major regions. Output in Europe (including Russia) fell 1.7% month-on-month, while Asia ex-China saw a 2.9% decline. Gulf production dropped to 332kt, down 34.5% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.”
The sharp year-on-year contraction in Gulf output stands out as a key pressure point on global supply, particularly given the explicit linkage to disruptions tied to the Iran conflict.
Regional Production Snapshot
The following table summarizes the reported changes in June aluminum production across key regions:
| Region | Metric | June Output | Month-on-Month Change | Year-on-Year Change | Year-to-Date Output | Year-to-Date Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global | Primary aluminum | 5.98mt | -2.9% | -1.5% | 36.4mt | Broadly stable |
| China | Primary aluminum | 3.7mt | -3.2% | Not stated | 22.3mt | +2.2% |
| Europe (including Russia) | Primary aluminum | Not stated | -1.7% | Not stated | Not stated | Not stated |
| Asia ex-China | Primary aluminum | Not stated | -2.9% | Not stated | Not stated | Not stated |
| Gulf | Primary aluminum | 332kt | Not stated | -34.5% | Not stated | Not stated |
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
