Key Moments
- EUR/GBP was last consolidating around 0.8515 after losing nearly 2% over the prior three weeks.
- Rising Middle East tensions and higher Oil prices have weighed on the Euro, while the Pound has remained comparatively resilient.
- Technical indicators showed fading bearish momentum, with EUR/GBP trading in a descending wedge and hinting at potential corrective upside.
Euro-Pound Cross Stabilizes After Multi-Week Decline
The Euro (EUR) was trading almost unchanged against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, hovering close to 0.8515 after declining by about 2% over the previous three weeks. Despite persistent risk aversion, Euro buyers appeared reluctant to push the pair decisively higher, yet sellers were also struggling to drive sustained price action below the 0.8500 handle.
Renewed tensions in the Middle East, including the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have been exerting pressure on the Euro. Higher Oil prices in this environment were described as intensifying the strain on the European Central Bank (ECB), which faces calls for further rate hikes even as economic growth remains subdued.
The British Pound, in contrast, was showing greater resilience against this backdrop of the US-Iran conflict and ongoing political deadlock in the United Kingdom. Market participants were seen extending the benefit of the doubt to Andrew Burnham, who was expected to be nominated as leader of the Labour Party on Friday and to become Prime Minister on July 20.
Technical Picture: Downtrend Intact but Losing Momentum
EUR/GBP was last trading around 0.8520, remaining confined within a descending wedge formation. However, several momentum gauges were signaling that the bearish phase might be losing traction.
On the four-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (14) was displaying a bullish divergence and edging toward the 50 midpoint, suggesting waning downside momentum. In the same timeframe, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line was positioned slightly above zero, which added to the argument for a possible bullish correction in the near term.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Immediate support on the downside was identified at Friday’s low near 0.8510, followed by the lower boundary of the wedge pattern around 0.8500. A clear break beneath these zones would leave the pair without significant chart support until the early June 2025 lows near 0.8420.
On the topside, first resistance was aligned with the descending trendline barrier, currently around 0.8530. Just above, an earlier support level that has now turned into resistance was noted in the 0.8535 area. A decisive move above both of these hurdles would be seen as easing the immediate bearish bias and redirecting attention toward the highs recorded on July 2, 3, and 6, around 0.8570.
Euro Performance Against Major Currencies
The table below summarizes the intraday percentage changes of the Euro against a basket of major currencies. On the day, the Euro showed its strongest relative performance versus the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.32% | -0.04% | 0.03% |
| EUR | -0.08% | — | 0.05% | 0.24% | -0.03% | 0.25% | -0.09% | -0.04% |
| GBP | -0.12% | -0.05% | — | 0.22% | -0.08% | 0.22% | -0.12% | -0.04% |
| JPY | -0.34% | -0.24% | -0.22% | — | -0.29% | -0.01% | -0.34% | -0.25% |
| CAD | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.08% | 0.29% | — | 0.29% | -0.02% | 0.04% |
| AUD | -0.32% | -0.25% | -0.22% | 0.01% | -0.29% | — | -0.30% | -0.25% |
| NZD | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.34% | 0.02% | 0.30% | — | 0.08% |
| CHF | -0.03% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.25% | -0.04% | 0.25% | -0.08% | — |
The heat map above shows the percentage change of each major currency against the others. The base currency is selected from the left-hand column, while the quote currency is taken from the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro in the left column and moving to the US Dollar column provides the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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