Key Moments
- AUD/USD extends its decline from a two-and-a-half-week high near 0.6970, trading around 0.6930-0.6925.
- The pair remains above the 200-day SMA at 0.6878 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6849, preserving a broadly constructive technical backdrop.
Risk Aversion Lifts USD, Pressures AUD/USD
AUD/USD begins the new week under pressure, extending a modest bearish gap lower and moving further away from the two-and-a-half-week high near the 0.6970 area reached on Friday. During the Asian session, the pair slides into the 0.6930-0.6925 band as rising tensions between the United States and Iran fuel demand for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD).
A renewed advance in Crude Oil prices adds to the supportive backdrop for the Greenback by stoking inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations for additional US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. These fundamental drivers weigh on the Australian Dollar, even as the broader technical structure for AUD/USD still avoids signaling a completed top after its rebound from the multi-month trough hit in June.
Technical Picture: Uptrend Signals Meet Overhead Friction
From a chart perspective, AUD/USD continues to trade above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the November 2025-May 2026 advance. This positioning helps maintain a constructive medium-term tone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram also remains marginally in positive territory, indicating a mild recovery bias and broadly supporting a favorable technical outlook.
However, momentum remains far from robust. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), sitting near 42, suggests only a tentative improvement from prior weakness. In addition, the pair has repeatedly failed to overcome the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement barrier, a pattern that argues for restraint before adopting aggressive bullish AUD/USD positions as attention turns to upcoming US inflation data this week.
Key Levels: Supports and Resistance Zones
Immediate downside protection is seen at the 200-day SMA, located at 0.6878, followed by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6849. A more substantial technical floor is found near the 61.8% retracement at approximately 0.6747, an area where buying interest would be expected to emerge on a more pronounced pullback.
On the upside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6951 remains the first major hurdle. A decisive and sustained move above this threshold would be required to validate prospects for a further advance toward the 23.6% retracement region around 0.7077. A break of that latter zone could then open the door to a more convincing bullish extension.
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
The US Dollar shows broad-based strength on the day, with the most pronounced gain against the Australian Dollar. The table below details intraday percentage changes of the USD versus major counterparts, as well as cross-moves among the other currencies.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.18% | 0.16% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.26% | -0.07% | 0.16% | |
| EUR | -0.18% | -0.01% | 0.04% | -0.11% | 0.09% | -0.21% | -0.00% | |
| GBP | -0.16% | 0.01% | 0.07% | -0.10% | 0.14% | -0.18% | 0.05% | |
| JPY | -0.23% | -0.04% | -0.07% | -0.16% | 0.04% | -0.26% | -0.01% | |
| CAD | -0.07% | 0.11% | 0.10% | 0.16% | 0.20% | -0.08% | 0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.26% | -0.09% | -0.14% | -0.04% | -0.20% | -0.26% | -0.03% | |
| NZD | 0.07% | 0.21% | 0.18% | 0.26% | 0.08% | 0.26% | 0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.16% | 0.00% | -0.05% | 0.01% | -0.15% | 0.03% | -0.24% |
The heat map shows percentage moves between major currencies, where the base currency is taken from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting US Dollar in the left column and moving horizontally to Japanese Yen displays the percentage change for USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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