Key Moments
- WTI pulls back during Thursday’s Asian session, trading just above $74.00 and down about 0.65% on the day.
- Prices stall near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July decline, while remaining below the 200-day EMA at $77.27.
- Mixed signals from MACD and RSI suggest caution, with rebounds capped by overhead resistance rather than a clear trend reversal.
WTI Retreats After Testing Multi-Week Highs
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the key US Crude Oil benchmark, eases lower on Thursday, interrupting a two-session advance that had carried prices to their highest level in more than two weeks the previous day. During the Asian trading hours, WTI trades with a soft tone, hovering just above the $74.00 handle and showing a loss of roughly 0.65% on the session.
Despite the pullback, selling pressure has been limited so far, with the market struggling to extend the downside beyond the immediate intraday weakness.
Technical Picture: Recovery Stalls at Initial Fibonacci Barrier
From a broader perspective, the recent rebound from the lowest level since late February has stalled around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-July downswing. This zone is acting as an initial cap on the recovery attempt.
WTI continues to trade beneath the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), preserving a bearish short-term bias. The failure to reclaim this key long-term indicator keeps the broader downtrend framework in place, even as prices attempt to recover from recent lows.
Momentum indicators send a mixed signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has moved into positive territory, with the MACD line above the zero line, pointing to an early-stage recovery attempt. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 44, indicating only modest buying interest and suggesting that upside momentum remains constrained.
Key Resistance and Support Levels
The immediate upside test is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $75.69. A break above this level would bring the 200-day EMA at $77.27 into focus as the next significant resistance. A sustained move and daily close above the 200-day EMA would be needed to convincingly challenge the prevailing near-term bearish setup and open the door to a more durable recovery phase.
| Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| 23.6% Fibonacci retracement (May-July decline) | Initial resistance | $75.69 |
| 200-day EMA | Major resistance | $77.27 |
| 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | Subsequent resistance | $81.23 |
| 50.0% Fibonacci retracement | Secondary resistance | $85.71 |
| 61.8% Fibonacci retracement | Deeper upside target | $90.19 |
| Higher Fibonacci level | Extended resistance | $96.56 |
| Higher Fibonacci level | Extended resistance | $104.69 |
| Cycle low | Major support | $66.73 |
If WTI manages to hold above the 200-day EMA after breaking through $77.27, additional resistance layers are located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $81.23 and the 50.0% level at $85.71. Further upside extension, if achieved, would bring the 61.8% retracement at $90.19 into view, followed by higher Fibonacci levels at $96.56 and $104.69.
On the downside, the key structural floor is identified at the cycle low at $66.73. Should the current bearish inclination re-emerge decisively, this level is expected to act as a major support area where selling pressure could potentially slow or pause.
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