Key Moments
- EUR/GBP trades around 0.8530, hovering just above the one-year low at 0.8519.
- Germany posts a EUR 19.1 billion trade surplus in May, exceeding April’s EUR 14.5 billion, but the data fails to lift the Euro.
- Heightened US-Iran tensions and a sharp rebound in crude oil prices keep Euro buying interest restrained.
EUR/GBP Steadies Near Lows Despite Stronger German Trade Data
The Euro (EUR) is trading broadly unchanged against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, with the EUR/GBP cross fluctuating around 0.8530. The pair is holding only a few pips above its one-year trough at 0.8519, as geopolitical concerns and commodity price moves overshadow supportive economic data.
Fresh figures from Germany show the country’s trade balance surplus widening to EUR 19.1 billion in May from EUR 14.5 billion in April, helped by stronger-than-anticipated exports. Despite beating expectations, the improvement in Germany’s external position has not translated into meaningful support for the common currency in the EUR/GBP pair.
Geopolitics and Oil Rally Weigh on Euro Sentiment
Market attention remains focused on rising frictions between the United States and Iran. The US has initiated a new wave of attacks in Iran, described as retaliation for strikes on US bases located in Gulf countries. According to the article, US President Donald Trump stated on Wednesday that the ceasefire “was over.”
Energy markets have reacted strongly to these developments. Crude oil prices have rebounded by nearly 10%, with Brent climbing back to the $80 mark on Wednesday after having traded close to $70.00 last week. The renewed strength in oil prices, combined with geopolitical uncertainty, is keeping Euro bulls cautious and limiting any sustained recovery in EUR/GBP.
Technical View: Bearish Bias Persists but Selling Pressure Eases
From a technical perspective, EUR/GBP retains a short-term bearish configuration, although downside momentum appears to be fading. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 28, signaling a bullish divergence, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is stabilizing around the zero line, indicating a phase of consolidation rather than a clear shift to an upside trend.
On the upside, buyers would need to push prices above the previous yearly low at 0.8533, recorded on July 7, and through the upper boundary of the descending wedge pattern that has developed from the mid-June highs, presently located near 0.8555, to validate a more sustained corrective move higher.
On the downside, a break below Wednesday’s low at 0.8519 would expose the confluence of the wedge support and the late June 2025 lows situated just above the 0.8500 area, a region likely to test the resolve of Euro buyers. Below that zone, the article highlights a lack of clear technical support until the early June 2025 lows, in the 0.8410-0.8863 band.
Euro Performance Against Major Currencies This Week
The table below summarizes the percentage changes of the Euro relative to a set of major currencies this week. Over this period, the Euro has shown its strongest performance against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | -0.46% | 0.65% | -0.20% | -0.03% | -0.32% | 0.38% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | -0.51% | 0.61% | -0.26% | -0.03% | -0.39% | 0.30% | |
| GBP | 0.46% | 0.51% | 1.00% | 0.26% | 0.47% | 0.13% | 0.82% | |
| JPY | -0.65% | -0.61% | -1.00% | -0.87% | -0.55% | -0.93% | -0.28% | |
| CAD | 0.20% | 0.26% | -0.26% | 0.87% | 0.30% | -0.07% | 0.56% | |
| AUD | 0.03% | 0.03% | -0.47% | 0.55% | -0.30% | -0.36% | 0.33% | |
| NZD | 0.32% | 0.39% | -0.13% | 0.93% | 0.07% | 0.36% | 0.69% | |
| CHF | -0.38% | -0.30% | -0.82% | 0.28% | -0.56% | -0.33% | -0.69% |
The heat map presents bilateral percentage changes among major currencies. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the Euro from the left column and moving to the US Dollar column shows the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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