Key Moments
- Ethereum is trading at $1,740, with price hovering just above the 20-day EMA at $1,714 after rejection near the 50-day EMA around $1,800.
- US spot ETH ETFs have recorded four consecutive days of net inflows totaling $91.5 million, while trading volume and broader buying pressure remain subdued.
- Derivatives open interest has stayed flat and whales’ ETH balances are largely unchanged over three weeks, signaling cautious positioning despite recent gains.
Onchain Data Shows Gradual Bullish Return
Ethereum (ETH) has seen a tentative resurgence of bullish control in recent days following an extended period of selling pressure. Despite nearly a 10% advance since the start of the month, overall buying demand remains muted.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has improved from -0.46 to -0.30. This shift reflects that recent price appreciation has reduced investors’ paper losses, but a significant portion of holdings is still under water. A more pronounced price rally, underpinned by stronger buying interest, would be required to move those positions back into profit.
Whale addresses holding between 10K-100K ETH have seen inflows of roughly 100K ETH over the past week. However, their aggregate balance has stayed largely unchanged when viewed over a three-week horizon. Retail cohorts, including wallets with 100-1K ETH and 1K-10K ETH, have also shown negligible changes in balances during the same period, indicating that neither large nor mid-sized holders have meaningfully adjusted their exposure.
ETF Flows and Coinbase Premium Signal Tepid Demand
US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have delivered four consecutive sessions of net inflows for the first time since early May, according to SoSoValue data. Cumulative inflows over these four days reached $91.5 million. While positive, this level of demand has not been sufficient to trigger a strong upside breakout in price.
The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the relative demand from US-based participants, paints a similar picture. The index has risen from -0.169 to -0.076, showing that US interest has improved compared with previous weeks but continues to signal an overall weak bid. Notably, the metric has not remained in positive territory for more than 50 consecutive days since the beginning of the year.
Historically, both a persistently elevated Coinbase Premium Index and sustained net inflows into spot ETH ETFs have been necessary to support a substantial upward move in Ethereum’s price.
Derivatives Positioning Reflects Caution
On the derivatives front, open interest has been largely flat over the past week. This suggests that leveraged traders are proceeding cautiously, refraining from deploying significant additional capital even as spot prices have edged higher.
Technical Setup: ETH Hovering Around 20-Day EMA
Ethereum has registered $61.6 million in liquidations over the last 24 hours, dominated by $51.5 million in long liquidations. This flush has occurred against the backdrop of a still-bearish short-term technical structure.
ETH is currently below both the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which stand at $1,803 and $1,965, respectively, reinforcing a negative near-term bias. Price is holding just above the 20-day EMA support at $1,714.
Momentum indicators point to waning buying strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is easing toward 51, while the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) is retreating toward 70, signaling a loss of upward momentum without yet indicating deeply oversold conditions.
Key Technical Levels
ETH is navigating a well-defined band of support and resistance levels that are closely monitored by market participants.
| Type | Level | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price | $1,740 | Current ETH price |
| Support | $1,714 (20-day EMA) | Immediate short-term support |
| Support | $1,524 | Next notable downside level |
| Support | $1,404 | Further key floor |
| Support | $1,155 | Longer-term base if selling deepens |
| Resistance | $1,803 (50-day EMA) | Part of initial resistance cluster |
| Resistance | $1,806 | Horizontal level aligning with 50-day EMA zone |
| Resistance | $1,909 | Upside objective after a break of initial cluster |
| Resistance | $1,965 (100-day EMA) | Major moving average barrier above $1,909 |
| Resistance | $2,018 | Higher resistance hurdle |
| Resistance | $2,107 | Subsequent upside target |
On the downside, the 20-day EMA at $1,714 serves as the first line of defense. Below that, more substantial support levels emerge at $1,524 and $1,404, while a more pronounced decline would bring the longer-term base near $1,155 into focus.
On the topside, the initial resistance zone is defined by the confluence of the 50-day EMA at $1,803 and the horizontal barrier at $1,806. A sustained break above this cluster would be required to open the path toward $1,909 and the 100-day EMA at $1,965, with further resistance anticipated at $2,018 and $2,107.
Methodology Note
The technical analysis in this article was prepared with the assistance of an AI tool. Know more.
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