Key Moments
- WTI futures on NYMEX trade about 1% higher near $69.40 during the European session on Tuesday after reports of attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Despite the uptick, WTI holds a bearish near-term bias with spot prices well below the 20-day EMA at $74.27 and the RSI at 31.79 hovering just above oversold territory.
- A decisive break below $67.09 could trigger a new downward leg toward the February 26 low at $63.58.
Geopolitical Tensions Support WTI Prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures on the NYMEX trade about 1% higher, hovering near $69.40 during the European session on Tuesday. The move comes after reports that Iran attacked at least two commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for nearly one-fifth of global energy flows, reigniting concerns about potential supply disruptions.
According to a report from Axios, Iran launched at least two missiles at commercial ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reported that two ships were struck and sustained significant damage, though no casualties were recorded.
The broader market impact is expected to be limited for now, as the United States has not issued any formal response on the incident, which suggests that the existing ceasefire with Iran remains in place.
Political Rhetoric and Diplomatic Tensions
US President Donald Trump threatened on Monday to attack Iranian infrastructure if a deal is not concluded soon. The comments added a layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape surrounding oil markets.
In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned, “Negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue. Honour your signature.”
OPEC+ Output and Supply Dynamics
Alongside geopolitical developments, oil prices face pressure from fundamentals. An announced increase in overall oil production by OPEC+ has added to global supply, contributing to a bearish backdrop for crude prices.
WTI Technical Outlook
Bias: At press time, WTI US Oil is trading around $69.29, modestly higher on the day. However, the contract continues to reflect a bearish short-term bias, with spot prices trading well below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $74.27.
Momentum: The pronounced gap between the current price and the 20-day EMA signals that sellers remain in control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 31.79, just above oversold conditions, indicating that downward momentum is still prevailing but may be nearing a point where selling pressure could start to ease.
| Technical Level | Price | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Current price (approx.) | $69.29 | WTI trades higher intraday but within a bearish structure |
| 20-day EMA | $74.27 | Key dynamic resistance, far above spot |
| Immediate resistance | $70.00 | First upside hurdle |
| Support – July 2 low | $67.09 | Break below could start a fresh downside leg |
| Support – February 26 low | $63.58 | Next target if $67.09 fails |
| RSI | 31.79 | Near oversold, but bearish momentum remains |
Resistance: On the upside, the first resistance level is at $70.00. Above that, the 20-day EMA near $74.27 is the next significant barrier.
Support: On the downside, a break below the July 2 low at $67.09 would likely open the way to further losses. A move beneath $67.09 would put the February 26 low at $63.58 into view.
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