EUR/USD Slips as Dollar Rebounds, EMA Caps Upside

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: July 6, 2026

Key Moments

EUR/USD trades marginally lower near 1.1428 in early European dealings as the US Dollar firms after a negative weekly close.
Market participants await the FOMC Minutes for updated signals on the US interest rate trajectory following June’s NFP report.
Eurozone core HICP eased to 2.4% in June, reducing expectations for further ECB rate hikes this year.

Dollar Strength Weighs on EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is trading slightly in the red around 1.1428 during the early European session on Monday, with modest selling pressure emerging as the US Dollar regains traction following a weak weekly close.

In late Asian trading, the US Dollar Index (DXY) – which tracks the performance of the Greenback against six major counterparts – is up 0.1%, hovering near 101.00. The modest recovery comes after a period of weakness triggered by the latest United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June, which pointed to moderate labor demand and prompted a reassessment of Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations.

Investors are now looking to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the June policy meeting, due on Wednesday, for additional clarity on the US interest rate outlook and any nuances in policymakers’ discussions.

Euro Holds Firm Against Peers Despite Softer Inflation

While the US Dollar has gained some ground against the Euro, the single currency continues to outperform several other majors, even as concerns about further European Central Bank tightening this year have receded.

Expectations for additional ECB rate hikes are likely to soften after the Eurozone core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) decelerated more than anticipated in June. The flash core HICP – which strips out food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – came in at 2.4%, undershooting both the consensus and the prior 2.6% reading.

Intraday Euro Performance vs Major Currencies

The following table summarizes the percentage changes of the Euro against major currencies today, with the Euro showing its strongest performance versus the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		0.03%	0.06%	0.36%	0.06%	0.10%	0.40%	0.12%
EUR	-0.03%		0.03%	0.33%	0.03%	0.08%	0.37%	0.09%
GBP	-0.06%	-0.03%		0.28%	-0.03%	-0.00%	0.34%	0.07%
JPY	-0.36%	-0.33%	-0.28%		-0.31%	-0.26%	0.02%	-0.18%
CAD	-0.06%	-0.03%	0.03%	0.31%		0.02%	0.35%	0.09%
AUD	-0.10%	-0.08%	0.00%	0.26%	-0.02%		0.33%	0.06%
NZD	-0.40%	-0.37%	-0.34%	-0.02%	-0.35%	-0.33%		-0.28%
CHF	-0.12%	-0.09%	-0.07%	0.18%	-0.09%	-0.06%	0.28%

The heat map is read by selecting the base currency from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro as the base currency on the left and moving horizontally to the US Dollar column displays the percentage change for EUR (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/USD Technical Picture

EUR/USD is hovering near 1.1430, retaining a mildly bearish short-term stance as it trades below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently at 1.1462. The pair’s location under this dynamic level indicates that upward moves remain constrained for the time being, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 42 signals soft but stabilizing downside momentum rather than a clearly oversold environment.

On the upside, the first notable resistance sits at the 20-day EMA at 1.1462. A daily close above this threshold would be required to alleviate existing bearish pressure and pave the way for a more durable rebound, potentially allowing the pair to advance toward the 1.1500 region.

On the downside, the June 24 low at 1.1325 is the primary support area to monitor. A break below that level would bring 1.1300 into view, followed by the 29 May 2025 low at 1.1210.

Focus on Eurozone Core HICP

The Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) tracks the evolution of prices for a standard basket of goods and services within the European Monetary Union. Published monthly by Eurostat, the index is harmonized across member states via a common methodology and weighted contributions. The year-on-year measure compares the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Core HICP excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, making it a key gauge of underlying inflation and shifts in purchasing behavior. In general, stronger readings tend to be interpreted as supportive for the Euro, while weaker figures are often viewed as negative.