Key Moments
- USD/CHF moved above 0.8050, extending its rebound from recent lows near 0.8000 and targeting the 0.8070 region.
- Swiss unemployment rose to 3.1% in June from 3% in May, its highest level in nearly five years, pressuring the Franc.
- A potential Morning Star pattern is forming on the daily chart, with confirmation eyed on a close above the 0.8065 area.
Risk Aversion and Swiss Data Support Dollar Upside
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is giving back part of its recent strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, as a cautious tone in global markets and soft domestic labor data weigh on the currency. In this environment, USD/CHF has extended its recovery from two-and-a-half-week lows around 0.8000, pushing beyond 0.8050 and targeting the 0.8070 area.
Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East are contributing to the risk-off backdrop. Comments from Iranian officials reaffirming their intention to control the Strait of Hormuz and charge fees on vessels using the key shipping lane are unsettling markets, particularly as the US opposes such a move. At the same time, renewed clashes in Lebanon and ongoing exchanges of threats between Iran and Israel are adding strain to an already fragile ceasefire process.
On the domestic front, the Swiss labor market provided an additional headwind for the Franc. The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly increased to 3.1% in June from 3% in May, marking its highest level in nearly five years and undermining support for the Swiss currency.
Later in the US session, investors are watching for the ISM Services PMI, which is anticipated to indicate a modest loss of momentum while still remaining consistent with solid activity levels. Market participants also await remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who is scheduled to address the press at a later time.
Technical Picture: Potential Morning Star Near Key Support
USD/CHF is trading around 0.8054, with recent price behavior pointing to an A-B-C corrective reversal following a completed 5-wave bullish phase under the Elliot Wave framework. From a technical perspective, a daily close above the former support band defined by the June 26 and June 30 lows near 0.8065 would complete a Morning Star candlestick pattern. This would be a bullish indication that the prior downward correction may have run its course.
Momentum readings on the daily chart are mixed. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 57 signals underlying positive, though not stretched, momentum. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly negative, pointing more to a moderation in upside momentum than to a clear reversal lower.
Key Levels: Upside and Downside Markers
On the topside, a confirmed break above the 0.8065 area would shift attention toward the resistance band between 0.8120 and 0.8140, which encompasses the highs from June 24, June 26, and July 1. Beyond that zone, the next notable reference is the August 2025 high at 0.8170.
On the downside, the 0.8000 psychological level capped sellers last week. A sustained move below this threshold would expose a more significant support region, where the mid-June lows converge with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.7915, as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June advance around the 0.7900 area.
US Dollar Performance Against Major Currencies
The table below summarizes the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of major currencies today. According to the data, the US Dollar has shown its strongest relative performance against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.17% | 0.10% | 0.57% | 0.21% | 0.12% | 0.51% | 0.25% | |
| EUR | -0.17% | -0.07% | 0.43% | 0.06% | -0.02% | 0.34% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | -0.10% | 0.07% | 0.48% | 0.09% | -0.01% | 0.42% | 0.18% | |
| JPY | -0.57% | -0.43% | -0.48% | -0.37% | -0.44% | -0.09% | -0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.21% | -0.06% | -0.09% | 0.37% | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.12% | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.41% | 0.18% | |
| NZD | -0.51% | -0.34% | -0.42% | 0.09% | -0.30% | -0.41% | -0.24% | |
| CHF | -0.25% | -0.09% | -0.18% | 0.25% | -0.08% | -0.18% | 0.24% |
The heat map illustrates the percentage moves between major currency pairs. The base currency is taken from the left column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the US Dollar on the left and moving horizontally to the Japanese Yen cell shows the performance of USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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